Good morning,

Wall Street is stuck in neutral this morning, with all eyes on Jackson Hole where Powell is set for his swan song... and markets are betting he won’t go quietly.

Then there’s Goldman Sachs with a jobs forecast that could put Trump back on the offensive, the dollar perking up, and crypto bulls nursing a Monday hangover.

Meanwhile, Zelenskiy’s Oval Office charm earned him Trump’s blessing for security guarantees but not much clarity on a peace deal with Putin.

And Home Depot’s earnings are due today, giving us yet another read on how American shoppers are holding up.

Let's dive in!

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

✍️ Zelenskiy wins Trump’s nod

Zelenskiy turned on the charm in the Oval Office, thanking Trump for his support and even handing over a letter for Melania. It paid off. Trump agreed, at least for now, to back security guarantees in any peace deal, while tabling thornier issues like territorial swaps with Russia. 

💵 Dollar bounces, gold stalls

The dollar clawed back from a three-week low despite lingering trade uncertainty and rising debt. Gold held steady, with traders eyeing Russia-Ukraine talks and this week’s Jackson Hole summit. Treasuries edged higher too, with 10-year yields extending last week’s climb after hotter PPI data.

🤖 Altman sounds AI bubble alarm

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is joining the chorus of skeptics, warning that investors may be getting “overexcited” about AI. That doesn’t mean it’s a fad. He called the technology “the most important thing to happen in a very long time.” The Nasdaq, powered largely by AI optimism, remains near record highs, and some analysts say it’s starting to look frothy.

🚀 Gemini shoots for IPO 

Crypto's breakout year continues with Gemini Space Station filing to go public. The Winklevoss twins’ exchange has handled $285 billion in trading volume and holds $18 billion in assets. Details on pricing and share count are TBD, but the ticker “GEMI” is set. The twins are billing it as a “Super App” ready for the next phase of the crypto frontier.

🐉 Tariffs bite into China 

Trump granted Beijing a 90-day extension on trade talks, but the tariffs already in place are starting to sting. Pantheon’s chief China economist Duncan Wrigley pointed to “sluggish” domestic demand, while Nomura’s chief economist Rob Subbaraman said more stimulus is likely coming in the second half. 

🕊️ As peace talks drag on, Wall Street treads water

Trump and Putin touted progress in Alaska last week, and Trump spent Monday with Zelenskiy in the Oval Office. There's hope for trilateral talks, but investors aren’t budging until the uncertainty clears.

📍 Where things stand this morning

Trump struck an optimistic tone, saying it’s “when, not if” the leaders meet again but hedged with, “It’s possible it might not be able to be done.” 

Zelenskiy called the meeting “constructive,” while Russia shut down Ukraine’s push for NATO peacekeepers, warning of “uncontrolled escalation.” 

Trump also kept talks going with European leaders late into the night.

Oil rose on speculation a ceasefire could shift supply, but stocks barely moved because Wall Street wants a real deal, not more hopeful soundbites...

... whether it’s clarity on peace, the Fed’s next move, Trump’s tariffs, or retail earnings later this week.

☀️ Solar shines bright

One place traders did react: was solar. The sector popped after Treasury expanded clean energy tax credits to cover more projects than expected.

📊 Will Goldman’s jobs call rile Trump?

The labor market looked strong until it didn't, and Goldman Sachs thinks things are about to get worse. With fresh jobless claims due later this week, Goldman analysts expect more bad news for U.S. workers.

🗣️ Trump vs. Goldman, round two

Trump blasted Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon last week after the bank said consumers are bearing the brunt of his tariffs, mocking Solomon’s DJ side gig. 

Now Goldman is back with another report that’s unlikely to win favor at the White House.

Chief economist Jan Hatzius and his team cut their estimate of trend job growth to just 30,000 a month, warning that downward revisions to past reports will likely continue. 

“Our outlook for job growth has dimmed too,” Hatzius wrote in a note.

🏦 Other data supports Goldman's call

If Goldman is right, a higher unemployment rate would crank up pressure on the Fed to cut rates just as Powell heads into his final Jackson Hole appearance. 

On the ground, workers are already acting cautious. The quits rate has dropped to 2%, down a full point from the pandemic-era peak. 

Korn Ferry consultants called it a sign that Americans are holding onto their jobs “for dear life.”

☎️ Trump pushes for Putin–Zelenskiy summit

Fresh off his White House meeting with Zelenskiy and a round of talks with European leaders, Trump picked up the phone to urge Putin to meet with the Ukrainian president. 

The pitch: a one-on-one between the two, followed by a trilateral sit-down that would include Trump. He called it a “very good, early step” toward ending the war.

❓ Will Putin bite?

So far, Moscow hasn’t committed. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed the idea was discussed but stopped short of saying Putin agreed. 

That leaves open the question of whether Washington’s rosy spin represents a real breakthrough or just strategic posturing by Kyiv and its allies.

Zelenskiy told reporters he’s willing to meet Putin directly and even discuss territorial issues but stressed a bilateral shouldn’t come with strings attached. 

He said Trump agreed to two key asks: that the U.S. participate in security guarantees for any peace deal, and that territorial swaps remain a matter for Kyiv and Moscow alone.

🌍 Little common ground

Trump floated the idea that Russia could release up to 1,000 prisoners as a goodwill gesture, though it didn’t appear in either side's official readout. 

Beneath the optimism, there’s not much common ground.

Putin is still demanding Ukraine cede the Donbas, which Ukraine isn't ready to give up. And Russia continues to inch forward on the battlefield. 

Hours after Zelenskiy’s meeting in DC, Russian strikes on Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia killed at least 10 civilians, including two children.