Good morning — another day, another record…

Gold ripped to another all-time high above $3,600 yesterday, Big Tech bounced back, and 30-year Treasury yields briefly cracked 5% before pulling back.

5% yields shouldn’t be happening at this point in the cycle under normal circumstances. But investors are sending a clear message to Uncle Sam...

... "We want more compensation for the risk of lending you money."

Meanwhile, Trump is gearing up for a Supreme Court showdown over tariffs, warning (in his usual hyperbolic way) of “a reverberation like maybe you’ve never seen before” if the justices don’t side with him.

The Fed remains the main show. A September cut looks all but locked in, and even die-hard hawks like St. Louis Fed chief Alberto Musalem are turning dovish...

... hinting at a 25bps cut this month and more to follow.

Elsewhere, McDonald’s is dusting off its Extra Value Meals as consumers pinch pennies, PwC says Gen Z plans to cut holiday spending by nearly a quarter, and EV makers are bracing for a sales cliff once tax credits expire Sept. 30.

Let’s dig in.

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

🥇 Gold hits all-time high

Fresh trade and Fed jitters kicked off the week with a selloff in stocks and bonds and metal ripped past $3,600 to a new all-time high, now up more than 35% year-to-date. Goldman Sachs just bumped its year-end target to $3,700, with a bull case near $3,950. 

🍔 McDonald’s bets big on value

With Americans pinching pennies, McDonald’s is bringing back its long-lost Extra Value Meals last seen before Covid. The new lineup includes eight meal combos priced roughly 15% below their à la carte cost, like an $8 Big Mac meal or $5 Sausage McMuffin. The company denies hiking prices beyond inflation, but franchisees admit the move is about restoring affordability. 

⚖️ Trump takes tariffs to SCOTUS

After an appeals court threatened to unravel much of this year’s tariff program, Trump is now pushing the Supreme Court to take the case fast. Framing tariffs as essential to counter “an economic emergency,” he warned of “a reverberation like maybe you’ve never seen before” if the justices rule against him. In the meantime, he’s doubling down, refusing to roll back steep levies on India over its Russian oil purchases.

📉 BLS shows jobs slowdown

The July JOLTS report showed U.S. job openings slipping to 7.2 million, down 200,000 from June and the weakest level since last September. Employers are avoiding mass layoffs but clearly slowing new hiring as uncertainty weighs. “The US job market continued to lose steam over the summer," said CIBC’s Ali Jaffery.

🇵🇱 Poland secures U.S. troop pledge

Polish President Karol Nawrocki says Donald Trump has promised not only to keep U.S. forces in Poland but potentially boost their presence. A fierce EU critic, Nawrocki has staked his country’s security and future on deepening ties with Washington.

🕊️ Fed’s unlikely choir sings cuts

Markets are betting 90% odds on a September rate cut, but the bigger story is who’s pushing for it. Even the Fed’s hawks are starting to coo.

🎤 Musalem’s mic drop

St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem, usually an inflation hawk, flipped the script in a midweek speech.

“With the pace of hiring low, any increase in layoffs could produce a more substantial labor market weakening than would occur in a more active market,” he warned. 

Musalem added that subpar GDP growth and tariff-driven margin pressures could make the job market more fragile, even if businesses aren’t yet flagging layoffs.

His comments lined up with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said, “While price stability remains the primary concern, the labor market is slowing enough that some easing in policy will be appropriate.”

🎶 Preaching to the choir

For investors (and President Trump), Musalem’s pivot is music to the ears. 

And he’s not singing solo. Two Fed officials already dissented in favor of cuts back in July, the first such split in over 30 years.

Fed governor Chris Waller also stood by his dovish stance, warning that “the labor market has come in much softer … and you want to get ahead of having the labor market go down because usually when the labor market turns bad, it turns fast in a nonlinear fashion.” 

Waller sees several cuts over the next three to six months, pulling rates back to the Fed’s “neutral” 3%.

Musalem still expects inflation to drift higher through mid-2026 but said its impact should fade after that, giving the Fed more room to prioritize jobs.

🛍️ Gen Z goes Grinch

Black Friday is supposed to push retailers “into the black,” but tariffs, rising costs, and souring consumer mood have retailers bracing for a not-so-merry Q4.

🎁 Gen Z slams the brakes

A new PwC survey found shoppers plan to spend an average of $1,552 this holiday season, down 5% from 2024. The biggest pullback comes from Gen Z, who say they’ll spend 23% less than last year. 

Meanwhile, boomers plan to spend about 5% more.

“Price is Gen Z’s love language,” said PwC’s Ali Furman. “They’ve been raised in an era of rising costs. They’re laser-focused on value and cost transparency." 

"For them, dupes aren’t a downgrade. They’re proof of smart shopping.”

🧾 Retail’s reality check

Even discount chains like Dollar General and Dollar Tree, which beat on Q3 earnings, have warned about a more frugal second half of the year ahead.

But it's not so much the tariffs themselves as it is the expectations around them. “The threat prices may go up, and people have a consciousness around that,” said Fruman. 

That anxiety is showing up in the University of Michigan’s sentiment index, which dropped 6% in August, the first downturn in four months.

⚡ EV tax credit cliff looms

2025 hasn't been the best year for EVs. But the real test comes on Sept. 30 when the $7,500 federal tax credit goes away. 

📉 What analysts say

Nothing in the way of good news. UC Berkeley professor Joseph Shapiro projects EV sales could drop 27% once the incentive is gone. 

Karl Brauer of iSeeCars sees the U.S. EV market share plunging “well below 4% immediately after the Sept. 30 incentive goes away and maybe settling in the beginning of 2026, around 4%.” 

For context, that’s roughly half the level Cox Automotive last reported.

“Remember when GM ran out of credits on the Bolt? They just cut the price by $7,500,” Brauer said. “We’ll see if there are similar price reductions after the incentive goes away.”

🚗 What the industry sees

Sales data shows buyers rushing to cash in before the deadline. 

For example, Ford just logged its sixth straight month of growth, fueled by EV demand. But industry insiders know the party’s almost over.

“We were hoping these tax credits would last long enough to reach price parity between EVs and internal combustion,” said Matt Groves, head of the Colorado Auto Dealers Association. “That didn’t happen.”

GM North America’s Duncan Aldred was even more straightforward.

“There’s no doubt we’ll see lower EV sales next quarter after tax credits end Sept. 30. It may take several months for the market to normalize," he said. 

"We will almost certainly see a smaller EV market for a while, and we won’t overproduce.”