Good morning,

Wall Street is on pins and needles this morning with Jackson Hole looming, Fed minutes due, and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic speeking later today. 

Traders are especially uneasy about a potential bombshell from Bostic after his "let’s wait a little longer" stance rattled markets last week.

On the corporate side, Home Depot’s earnings showed resilience in big-ticket home projects, Best Buy is trying the “if you can’t beat Amazon, join ’em” strategy, and Apple’s India play may land it in tariff trouble.

Meanwhile, S&P is keeping Uncle Sam at AA+... but only because tariff dollars are plugging the fiscal hole for now. Let’s dig in.

P.S. We’re off on a little team-building getaway over the next few days, so the daily newsletters will pause. Morning Brief will be back on schedule this coming Monday.

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

🏔️ Big Fed week heats up

Jackson Hole kicks off tomorrow, but markets don’t have to wait that long for Fed fireworks. The FOMC minutes land today, and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic is also taking the mic. Last week he rattled Wall Street with a wait-and-see stance on cuts, warning against “unnecessary changes” until there’s “a little more clarity.” Despite his cautious tone (and a hotter-than-expected PPI print), investors are still betting big on a September rate cut.

🏠 Housing starts show life

After four straight months of declines, housing construction got a modest lift in July. Single-family permits inched up 0.5%, while housing starts jumped nearly 3%. But the good news has a catch: total permit issuance — the best gauge of future activity — is sitting at a five-year low due to a notable drop in apartment projects. Tomorrow’s existing home sales report will show whether demand is keeping pace.

🛠️ Home Depot earnings inspire confidence

Affluent consumers are still spending on big projects, according to Home Depot CEO Ted Decker. That confidence let him reaffirm full-year guidance for 2.8% sales growth, even though Q2 earnings fell short of Wall Street forecasts. That's music to HD investors, who pushed the stock up more than 3% yesterday.

💻 Big Tech, Bitcoin stumble

The Dow flirted with record highs before fading, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sank into the red. Tech was the main drag, with the Nasdaq sliding 1.5%. Intel was the rare standout, jumping 7% on SoftBank’s $2 billion investment. Bitcoin didn’t escape the sell-off either, dropping 2.7% to hover just above $113,000.

📱 iPhone 17’s India gamble

Apple’s next flagship iPhone for U.S. buyers will be made in India, at least partially. The move is meant to dodge China tariffs, but it’s not a silver bullet. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs on India are set to rise over its oil trade with Russia. Apple expects its tariff tab to top $1.1 billion this quarter.

🛒 Best Buy launches its answer to Amazon

Best Buy is getting into the third-party marketplace business, rolling out a new platform with roughly 500 sellers at launch. 

The model looks a lot like Amazon’s (and Walmart’s, and Target’s), raising the question of whether this is a growth play or a last-ditch bid to stay relevant.

⚖️ A double-edged sword

CEO Corie Barry pitched the marketplace as a way to boost flexibility on price and inventory while adding a much-needed revenue stream in a tougher retail environment. 

Analysts say the appeal is obvious, but so are the risks. 

As AlixPartners’ Justin MacFarlane put it, “You get addicted to the growth and more is more until it’s not.” Too many categories, too many sellers, or a few bad actors can quickly erode a brand’s identity and reputation.

Best Buy says its vetting process will guard against those pitfalls. For now, investors are giving it the benefit of the doubt. BBY stock rose 3.2% after the announcement.

🤝 If you can’t beat ’em…

The move also reflects where the retail industry is headed. 

Walmart has expanded its marketplace, Target is pushing Target Plus, and specialty players from Ulta to Nordstrom to Lowe’s are building their own. 

For Best Buy, the shift may be less optional. The chain’s edge has long depended on waves of consumer-tech innovation, but with fewer breakthrough products, its competitive advantage has dulled.

“We do see customers actually doing a lot of consumer electronics transactions through marketplaces. And as a result of that, we need to make adjustments to be where the customer’s at,” said Best Buy executive Jason Bonfig.

📊 The bigger picture

The timing is no accident. Best Buy’s marketplace debut lands in the middle of a packed retail earnings week. 

Home Depot’s upbeat report has already set the tone, with Target, Lowe’s, and TJX reporting today, Walmart and Ross Stores tomorrow, and BJ’s Wholesale wrapping things up later this week.

⚙️ Tariffs are rattling metals

Wall Street is used to gold and silver swinging on every macro headline. But Trump’s tariffs are also hitting steel, aluminum, and now a much wider array of metals.

🏗️ New products, old problems

Steel and aluminum imports have been under a 50% tariff for months. 

If it wasn't enough, the U.S. tacked on this week more than 400 additional products that use those metals, with duties tied to steel and aluminum content. 

Even the UK — which struck a rare deal to avoid the levies — hasn’t locked anything in.

“Concern is growing that finalizing the deal on steel has fallen down the priority list both for the UK and US governments,” warned lobbyist Peter Brennan. 

Meanwhile, Japan says its auto sector is still “bleeding” under the tariffs and is pushing Washington for relief.

🔌 Copper cashes in

While steel and aluminum are reeling from new levies, copper enjoys a rare reprieve: most imports were exempted from duties. 

Prices slipped about 1% yesterday, but don’t expect that to flow through to consumers. 

Wiremakers have already lifted copper product prices by around 5% in recent days, underscoring the uneven way tariffs ripple through supply chains.

📌 Bottom line: Industries squeezed by tariffs are passing costs along to customers, while domestic copper producers aren’t passing any savings back.

💳 Uncle Sam keeps his AA+ (thanks to tariffs)

The U.S. dodged another credit downgrade this week, with S&P Global Ratings holding the line at AA+ despite ballooning debt from Trump’s sweeping tax-and-spend bill. 

Analysts said the fiscal void is growing but admitted tariff revenue is buying Trump some time.

💰 Tariffs as a lifeline

Trump’s trade salvos may have rattled markets, but they’ve also padded Washington’s coffers. 

S&P analyst Lisa Schineller said the surge in tariff revenue is already offsetting heavy spending and tax cuts tied to Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill

“We expect meaningful tariff revenue to generally offset weaker fiscal outcomes that might otherwise be associated with the recent fiscal legislation, which contains both cuts and increases in tax and spending,” she said.

📊 By the numbers

• 📉 $3.4 trillion: CBO’s estimate for how much the bill adds to the deficit over the next decade

• 💵 $28 billion: last month’s tariff haul, which is a new record

• 📈 1% of GDP: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s forecast for tariff revenues this year

• ⏳ 3 years: S&P’s estimate for when net U.S. debt will exceed GDP

🏦 Market reaction

Treasury yields dipped on the news, while the dollar stayed flat. But the implications of the AA+ rating go beyond bonds and FX.

As Bloomberg’s Garfield Reynolds put it, S&P’s “solid report card” gives the Fed “a modest boost” if it wants to hold rates next month against market expectations for cuts.