Good morning,

The Fed’s minutes all but confirmed more rate cuts are coming, and Wall Street celebrated, sending major indexes higher yesterday.

But this feels more like inertia than conviction.

As stocks hover near record highs, investors are quietly piling into hedges, from gold to Bitcoin (surprisingly), as the old “debasement trade” makes a roaring comeback.

Meanwhile, geopolitics gave investors something new to price in. Israel and Hamas reached terms on a full hostage release, a potential breakthrough in the two-year conflict. 

Earnings season is picking up speed, with Delta set to headline today’s results. Analysts expect strong demand for premium travel even as budget carriers show cracks. 

Over in tech, Dell is quietly positioning itself as the next AI sleeper hit, while S&P Global just blurred the line between stocks and crypto with a new hybrid index that mixes both.

And beyond the ticker tape, the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva says the global economy (though surprisingly resilient) is in uncharted waters, and “uncertainty is the new normal.”

Let's dig in!

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

✈️ Airline earnings take off

Delta kicks off Q3 airline earnings today, and analysts expect it to post some of the industry’s strongest results on the back of premium travel demand. United should follow suit thanks to its higher-end flyers, but the budget carrier sector looks weaker. “Discount prices that worked in the 1980s are today’s anachronism,” said Deutsche Bank.

🏠 Trump post baffles homebuilders

A late-night post from Trump sent housing stocks buzzing after he urged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to “get big homebuilders going” again. Analysts were puzzled because both agencies already back builders through liquidity programs. Expanding into construction loans, they warn, could be risky. As KBW’s Bose George put it, the post was “a little bit of a mystery.” Expect more short-term noise (and volatility) for the sector.

💻 Dell rides the AI wave

Dell may not scream “AI stock,” but it’s making a strong case. The company raised its long-term revenue forecast to 7–9% growth (more than double its old target) and expects earnings to rise 15%+. CEO Michael Dell says the company is “successfully translating AI demand into growth,” thanks to data infrastructure and AI servers. 

📊 S&P bridges stocks and crypto

Wall Street and blockchain just got a little closer. S&P Global launched its new Digital Markets 50 Index, tracking 15 major tokens and 35 crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy. Each component is capped at 5% weighting, and exposure will be offered via a new token called dShares. S&P says it’s part of a push to bring crypto “from margins to mainstream.” 

🛢️ Oil climbs despite headwinds

Crude prices edged up yesterday, with WTI topping $62 a barrel after U.S. data showed shrinking stockpiles, including a 763,000-barrel draw at Cushing, Oklahoma. But analysts warn the bounce may not last. OPEC+ output hikes, rising U.S. production, and growing Russian exports all point to plenty of supply ahead. Goldman still sees a surplus next year, with Brent averaging around $56 a barrel.

💬 Fed minutes hint at more cuts

With government data still offline, the Fed is flying half-blind heading into its next policy meeting. 

That made yesterday’s release of September’s meeting minutes a must-read for investors looking for clues on what comes next.

📄 What minutes showed

Officials were split, but the tone is leaning dovish. Most agreed inflation risks have “either diminished or not increased,” while unemployment and growth risks are climbing. 

Only one member — newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran — dissented, calling for a bigger half-point cut. A few others argued for holding steady.

The minutes largely backed up Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting admission that there are “no risk-free paths” from here. 

So far, the broad consensus seems to be that rate cuts are the lesser evil if the economy keeps losing steam.

🔭 Looking ahead

Private data also paints a picture slower payroll growth, rising unemployment claims, and weak hiring. That’s why markets are almost unanimous on easing:

• 🎲 95% odds of a 25bp cut on Oct. 30
• 🎲 80% odds of another in December

The Fed may be turning the page toward easier policy, but it’s doing so with limited visibility.

While Wall Street welcomes the shift, gold and Bitcoin keep quietly rallying on the side as investors hedge for whatever comes next.

🌍 ‘Buckle up’: IMF chief warns

Global markets are feeling the squeeze as government debt balloons and private borrowing dries up... and IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva isn’t sugarcoating it.

Speaking ahead of next week’s IMF and World Bank meetings, Georgieva said the global economy is “resilient but untested,” warning that a shock could come at any time. 

Pointing to record gold prices and trade tensions as red flags, she urged policymakers to “buckle up” for a rough ride. “Uncertainty is the new normal,” she said.

Despite forecasts calling for ~3% global growth this year, Georgieva cautioned that resilience may be fading. R

ising public debt and higher interest costs are stretching government budgets, while stagnant wages and political rifts are stirring unrest.

Her advice boiled down to tightening belts for everyone. Governments need to rein in deficits, and people should be saving more while they still can.

📊 Inside the latest report

Georgieva's warning follows the IMF’s new Global Debt Database, which doesn't inspire confidence:

• Global debt sits just above 235% of GDP

• Public debt hit 93%, with deficits averaging 5%

• Private debt fell to 143%, its lowest in a decade

• Governments owe more than $99 trillion of the world’s $251 trillion total

The IMF urged nations to scale back spending before rising debt derails any recovery. “The global economy has stayed afloat, but the next wave may test how well we can steer,” Georgieva said.

💰 The ‘debasement trade’ is back

Precious metals and crypto are on a tear... and it’s not all about inflation. 

Investors are losing faith in paper money. Combined with a weak dollar and record Washington deficits, the so-called “debasement trade” is making a comeback.

At its core, the trade is about hedging paper assets againsts dollar debasement as governments borrow and spend like there’s no tomorrow. 

One way to do it is buy real assets you can't print.... or even better scarce assets that are not tied to any jurisdictions, such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

In fact, all three hit record highs this year, with gold becoming the best-performing asset of 2025.

JPMorgan notes inflows to gold-backed ETFs and mutual funds are surging, while central banks continue stockpiling at record levels.

⚠️ AI bubble hegde, too

Ironically, the same forces driving fears of currency erosion are also pumping up Big Tech, especially AI. 

Easy-money policies have funneled cash into a handful of AI leaders, echoing the late-’90s dot-com boom, but whether AI can keep pace with all that capital is anyone’s guess.

The Bank of England warned yesterday that the “risk of a sharp market correction has increased.” 

Meanwhile, Oxford Economics’ Adam Slater said that although bubbles are hard to pinpoint, “there are a few potential symptoms of a bubble in the current situation.”

With tech now making up roughly 40% of the S&P 500, valuations look “stretched,” Slater added, and there’s a “general sense of extreme optimism” around the technology and no real estimates on its ultimate payoff.

So the flight to safe havens is as much about de-risking tech as it is about protecting dollar-denominated portfolios against currency depreciation.