Good morning,

Gold hit yet another record, reaching $3,812 per ounce this morning. It’s now up 45% this year, making it by far the best-performing asset class of 2025. 

Although the gold craze is making its way into mainstream headlines, so far central banks are the biggest whales in this cycle.

Here are a few interesting facts:

• Contrary to what many think, the central bank buying spree began after the West froze Russian reserves in 2022, not after the election or Liberation Day

• Annual central bank purchases have more than doubled compared to the previous decade

• For the first time since 1996, central banks hold more gold than Treasuries

• Gold has overtaken the euro as the second-most held currency in central bank reserves

• While most fingers point to Xi Jinping as the biggest gold hoarder, Poland is actually the biggest buyer this year

• Poland now holds more gold than the European Central Bank

• Fund managers now rank gold the second-most crowded trade after the Mag 7, per BofA

Commodity analysts say the next leg up in gold prices may come from retail FOMO and a classic feedback loop of higher prices, louder headlines, more demand… 

... and back to higher prices again.

In fact, last week gold-backed ETF inflows in North America hit their highest levels since March 26, but there’s still a lot of room if you benchmark gold against bitcoin.

For example, US bitcoin ETFs make up about 7% of the total market capitalization of bitcoin. For gold ETFs, this ratio is less than 1%. 

On the flip side, fund managers now rank gold the second-most crowded trade after the Mag 7, according to BofA. Is it the first inning or ninth crowded? We’ll soon find out.

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

📈 Big Tech gets a lift

Tesla and Apple led yesterday’s rally after fresh price-target bumps. Piper Sandler sees TSLA at $500, Wedbush has AAPL at $310. Apple also got a pop from the iPhone 17 launch. Nvidia kept the Mag 7 streak alive, closing at a record high and up 36% on the year.

🛒 Office Depot’s $1B buyout

Cheaper money is already driving M&A. ODP’s parent confirmed a $1 billion takeover by Atlas, ending years of failed tie-up attempts with Staples. The $28 per-share price marked a 34% premium and the stock nearly matched it, ending up 33% at $27.68.

👥 Oracle shakes up leadership

Oracle gained another 6% after naming Clay Magourk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, replacing Safra Catz (moving to vice chair). The stock is now up 45% this month, helped by buzz over its role in TikTok’s US restructuring.

💸 Bitcoin wobbles again

“Bitcoin Bottom Day” didn’t disappoint. Last week’s Fed cut sparked $280M in BTC liquidations (plus $500M in ETH), and Monday brought more pain, with BTC slipping below $113,000. Crypto-exposed names like Circle, Gemini, and Figure followed.

🏭 PMI due today

Today’s flash PMI lands after August’s most notable U.S. manufacturing jump in three years. Some of that was stockpiling ahead of tariffs and inflation, but momentum is there. Analysts expect a small dip in September, though the index should stay above 50.

🇺🇸 Trump’s H-1B changes rattle C-suites 

President Trump’s controversial policies have been moving markets for years, and his latest decree is no different. 

This time, it’s aimed at H-1B visas... permits used by hundreds of thousands of skilled foreign workers at major U.S. companies.

📜 Breaking down the order

Here’s what’s on the table:

• A new $100,000 fee for new H-1B visa holders

• Roughly 730,000 workers in the U.S. currently hold one

• Big questions remain on when and how the fee will be collected

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters Friday that the administration wants to make H-1B visas “not economic” to encourage hiring Americans. 

His remarks also hinted the fee might be annual, but press secretary Karoline Leavitt stressed Saturday that “this is NOT an annual fee” and applies only to new visas.

📉 Markets don't like the uncertainty

The initial shock faded Monday as stocks reversed higher, but analysts warn H-1B confusion could keep pressure on companies that lean heavily on foreign talent. 

India-based IT firms sold off on the news, and U.S. giants like Walmart, JPMorgan, and Google — all big sponsors of H-1B workers — also were in the red.

Policy watchers say the details are murky. Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy told clients the fallout will likely be a “blip” for an otherwise bullish tech market. 

But Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners warned that carve-outs and exemptions may end up shielding companies “closest to the administration and the CEOs that are closest to the White House.”

💼 Another day, another gold record... 

Gold notched yet another milestone yesterday, blowing past $3,750 an ounce. 

It’s now up more than 40% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500 by 13% and even beating Bitcoin by 20% and is on track for the biggest annual gain since the late 1970.

Gold bulls still see a lot of upside, with Goldman betting on $4,000/oz by mid-2026

📈 What’s driving the surge?

Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus says central banks are the main buyers — especially in Russia, China, and India — looking to hedge against the dollar. 

A weaker greenback isn’t hurting either, with the U.S. Dollar Index down roughly 10% this year. Rate cuts (and bets on more to come) have added extra fuel.

Not everyone is optimistic, though.

Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen points out that September’s surge pushed gold past its inflation-adjusted peak from January 1980.... a period that ushered in recession under Paul Volcker’s tightening.

“Historically, high gold prices haven’t exactly been associated with rampant optimism,” he said.

Ritholtz Wealth’s Blair duQuesnay flagged the uncertainty still hanging over the trade. 

“Are we in the third inning of this rally or the ninth inning? Gold is priced as a commodity, and that can make it hard to pinpoint the fundamentals.”, 

But sentiment is heating up. According to Bank of America, fund managers now rank gold the second-most crowded trade after the Mag 7.

💊 Tylenol's parent task after MAHA allegations

President Trump on Monday made headlines for a health pronouncement linking acetaminophen use to autism, sparking a selloff in Kenvue, Tylenol’s parent company.

📉 Kenvue takes a hit

Tylenol, the top name-brand acetaminophen, got the brunt of the spotlight. 

Trump appeared alongside HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) movement has focused heavily on autism. 

He warned Tylenol is “no good” for pregnant women, recommending it only as a last resort for high fever. Kenvue tried to get ahead, releasing a statement before the presser. 

“We believe independent, sound science clearly shows that taking acetaminophen does not cause autism. We strongly disagree with any suggestion otherwise and are deeply concerned with the health risk this poses for expecting mothers,” the company said in a press release.

It wasn’t enough. KVUE shares dropped nearly 7.5% on Monday before a slight after-hours rebound.

🏛️ MAHA is moving markets

Earlier this month, the White House outlined MAHA priorities, signaling a crackdown on vaccines, chemicals, and processed foods. 

Companies in affected industries are already seeing stock swings and adjusting their strategies.

Oisin Hanrahan of Keychain, whose AI platform tracks trends at major U.S. CPG companies, says firms are now “more focused” on MAHA mandates than even Trump’s tariffs. 

Case in point: across several food giants, the share of products labeled “natural” jumped from 6.81% to 21.7% in just six months starting August 2024.

“From where we sit at Keychain and the conversations we’re having daily, MAHA is reshaping how CPG companies think about formulation and marketing, especially what counts as natural,” Hanrahan said.