Good morning,

Wall Street is still chewing on yesterday’s Nvidia earnings, and this time, it doesn’t taste like victory.

Despite a 56% revenue jump, the AI darling’s weak guidance and legal overhang from Trump’s 15% China chip tax threat sent NVDA stock down 3% after hours.

Meanwhile, India just got hit with one of the biggest tariffs of Trump’s second term, and banks are warning that the GENIUS Act poses a “fundamental threat” to deposits.

Crypto isn’t exactly shining this week, either. Bitcoin briefly slipped to a 7-week low, with analysts warning of a bull trap and whales dumping billions.

On the bright side, U.S. firms are buying back shares at a record pace. And then there’s a twist only 2025 could deliver...

Cracker Barrel and American Eagle are rallying after course-correcting from branding disasters that drew Trump’s attention and sparked culture war battles over jeans and breakfast logos.

All eyes are on today’s GDP revision and jobless numbers, which will set the tone ahead of tomorrow’s big PCE inflation print. 

Let’s dig in.

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

🔻 Nvidia falls on sales forecast

Nvidia’s quarterly revenue jumped 56%, but investors were focused elsewhere. NVDA stock dipped 3% in after-hours trading after the AI chipmaker reported a lukewarm sales forecast, stoking fears that data center growth is stalling. The company also said the Trump administration’s proposal to slap a 15% commission on AI chip sales to China is still in the early stages... and anything could happen.

💰 Buyback bonanza hits $1T

Corporate America is putting its money where its mouth is. U.S. companies have announced more than $1 trillion in stock buybacks so far this year, the highest on record. Apple leads the pack with a $100B repurchase plan announced in May. Next in line are giants like Alphabet, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and BofA, each with $40B+ buybacks of their own.

📉 GDP revision will test the rally

With stagflation back in focus, today’s GDP update will be a key pulse check on the economy. The Q2 prelim print showed a surprise 3% YoY expansion, reversing Q1’s contraction, but all eyes are on the first revision due this morning. Also due today are jobless claims and pending home sales.

🪙 Banks slam Trump’s stablecoin law

Banking groups are fighting back against the White House’s crypto push. The GENIUS Act — Trump’s centerpiece stablecoin legislation — aims to regulate asset-backed digital dollars. But small lenders say it gives a free pass to fintechs and poses a “fundamental threat to bank deposits,” according to the Independent Bankers Association of Texas. Lobbyists are now pressuring lawmakers to repeal parts of the bill.

🇮🇳 India hit with double tariffs

Trump just doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, citing the country’s growing trade ties with Russia. While pharma is exempt, sectors like textiles, jewelry, semiconductors, and shrimp are in the crosshairs. The Global Trade Research Initiative warns that “hundreds of thousands of jobs” are at risk and that exports to the U.S. could plunge from $86.5B in 2025 to $50B next year.

🏛️ Fed under fire as September meeting looms

New York Fed president John Williams didn’t name names, but the subtext was unmistakable.

His interview yesterday came as President Trump escalates pressure on the central bank, including an effort to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud.

Cook has refused to step down, increasing the likelihood of a legal showdown. But the broader concern — that Trump’s moves are compromising the Fed’s autonomy — was exactly what Williams addressed.

“The structure of the Federal Reserve is … designed to have independent policymakers who are making decisions that affect the economy over the long term, away from short-term political pressure,” Williams said.

He also praised Cook’s integrity, adding she “has always brought integrity and a commitment to the Federal Reserve’s mission.”

🧭 September still a "live" meeting

While the political fight grabs headlines, Williams reminded markets to stay focused on what actually moves the economy: policy. 

Asked about the outlook for next month’s FOMC meeting, he said, “Every meeting is, from my perspective, live… Risks are more in balance. We are going to just have to see how the data play out.”

That lines up with Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments suggesting a September rate cut remains likely, even as inflation creeps higher. 

But Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin offered a more restrained view.

“I see modest movement in the economy,” Barkin said. “If there’s modest movement in the economy, that would imply a modest adjustment in rates.”

📌 Not as big of a deal in the end

Even if the Fed moves forward with a quarter-point cut next month, don’t expect much impact for households. 

“The Fed has to cut rates a lot before it has a measurable impact on households,” Bankrate’s chief financial analyst Greg McBride told reporters. 

“Remember, the Fed cut rates a full percentage point last year — and the average credit card rate is still over 20%.”

Meanwhile, others are watching Wall Street’s oddly muted reaction to the political saga.

“There is no question in our view that the Fed is now subject to intensifying fiscal dominance risks,” wrote Deutsche Bank’s head of FX research, George Saravelos. 

“What is a bigger surprise to us is that the market is not more concerned.”

👖 Culture clash stocks bounce back

Turns out a bad ad or clunky logo is all it takes to tank a stock... and maybe even rescue it. 

American Eagle and Cracker Barrel both found themselves in the crosshairs of culture war backlash this week. But after quick pivots, investors rewarded their course corrections.

🧢 American Eagle bets on Kelce

American Eagle (AEO) has had a wild few days. 

The stock spiked Friday, crashed Monday, and is now back on the upswing after the retailer shifted focus away from its controversial Sydney Sweeney campaign. 

The backlash was loud enough to draw in President Trump, who called it a “great jeans” ad, but AEO appears to be moving on.

Just as news broke of his engagement to Taylor Swift, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce unveiled a new partnership between his company Tru Kolors and American Eagle. 

That announcement helped push AEO shares up 8.63% by Wednesday’s close, and with earnings due next week, traders eye more momentum.

🪵 Cracker Barrel walks it back

Cracker Barrel (CBRL) took a different approach: a full retreat. 

After rolling out a modernized logo and remodel plans on August 18, the stock dropped 13% due to online outrage. But on Tuesday night, the company said it’s scrapping the rebrand and keeping its original look. 

The reversal sparked a rebound, with CBRL shares jumping more than 8% over the next two sessions.

Trump weighed in here too, congratulating the company for “changing your logo back to what it was” and wishing Cracker Barrel “good luck.”

📌 Controversy still moves markets

Earnings give investors a read on fundamentals, but branding missteps still pack a punch. 

“There’s this need to be culturally relevant,” said Kai Deveraux Lawson of Valerie creative consultancy, “but also the realization that backlash could impact your bottom line.”

Some brands may now think twice before wading into politically charged waters. But not all publicity is bad. Citi analyst Jon Tower noted Cracker Barrel’s moment may bring a short-term bump.

“While the lasting impact on the business is unclear, this late August hubbub has drawn attention… [and] could spark curiosity and visits near-term as consumers determine what all the ballyhoo was all about,” he said.

₿ Bitcoin hits 7-week low. What's next?

Crypto has had a breakout year, but Bitcoin’s latest slump is raising new questions. 

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped below $109,000 on Tuesday (its lowest level since early July) before bouncing slightly to $112,000 by last night. 

That’s still more than $10K off its recent peak just two weeks ago.

🕳️ Is this a bull trap?

The sudden slide from all-time highs has some analysts flashing warning signs. They say the move could mark the start of a so-called bull trap.

But Jamie Elkaleh, chief marketing officer at Bitget Wallet, says the issue runs deeper than sentiment. “Bitcoin’s flash crash highlighted the market’s ongoing liquidity challenges,” he said.

“ETF outflows and weaker on-chain activity have left order books thin, meaning large transactions — like August’s $2.7 billion whale sale — can quickly trigger cascading liquidations in over-leveraged futures markets.”

📈 Bulls aren’t budging

Despite the pullback, plenty of analysts remain bullish. Pseudonymous crypto strategist TechDev sees a familiar pattern unfolding, one he believes points to a higher high.

“The business cycle’s dynamics are all that’s been needed to understand Bitcoin’s,” he wrote this week.

“Even the profiles of the reds match the profiles of the bull runs... Green has been longer, and thus the ramp has been longer — that’s all. Red hasn’t even started. Doesn’t seem like most will be here when it does. Will you?”

Meanwhile, the macro calendar could provide crypto a short-term boost.

“There may be some hope for the crypto markets to mark a comeback this week,” said Simon Peters, analyst at eToro.

“We have more economic data in the form of GDP figures, unemployment claims, and PCE inflation data coming out from the U.S. A slowing economy, higher unemployment claims, and cooling inflation may boost crypto prices.”