Good morning,

It doesn't take brains to spot a bubble, but it’s almost impossible to know whether you’re in 1996 or 1999, and that’s where most money is made...

On Dec 5, 1996, Fed chair Alan Greenspan famously mused about “irrational exuberance” in stock prices. Many thought that warning marked the top, and stocks fell the next day.

But 1996 turned out to be just the early innings of the dot-com mania, and those who bailed in late 1996 missed one of the most impressive five-year S&P 500 stretches on record.

By mid-2000, just three and a half years after Greenspan's warning, the S&P 500 had more than doubled. Even at the dot-com trough, anyone who stayed in was still in the green.

So the question isn’t whether it’s a bubble... that's the easy one. 

The real question is whether it’s 1996 or 1999. Remember, the Shiller P/E sat at a 60-year high from 1995 to 2000, one of the best stretches in stock history.

P.S. GIFs are proving quite controversial in this newsletter. Should we drop them? Please voice your opinion in the survey below.

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

📈 Google muscles into the $3T club

Alphabet just crossed the $3 trillion mark, a milestone only three other companies have ever hit. The bump came on the back of a favorable antitrust ruling and bullish AI cloud projections. Citi’s Ronald Josey says AI-driven upside justifies staying long. Deutsche Bank warns this kind of concentration “doesn’t automatically mean it’s a bubble, but we appear to be in uncharted territory.”

🏛️ Trump takes aim at quarterly earnings

Trump wants companies reporting only twice a year instead of four times, arguing it would save money and shift focus back to “properly running their companies.” CEOs would love it, analysts not so much. The SEC has mandated quarterly updates for half a century, though even Warren Buffett once called the system “disgusting.”

🪙 Gold keeps breaking records

Gold powered past $3,700 an ounce to start the week, riding expectations of tomorrow’s Fed cut and economic uncertainty. Goldman Sachs says just a 1% shift out of private Treasury holdings could catapult gold above $5,000. Silver and platinum joined the rally, while Bitcoin stumbled into another mild correction.

🚗 Musk goes all in on Tesla

Elon Musk just bought $1 billion worth of Tesla stock, lifting shares 3.6% yesterday and pushing the EV maker back into positive territory for 2025. Investors are also warming to Tesla’s Optimus robotics pivot, though some analysts think Musk’s massive buy is as much about getting his $1T pay package approved as it is about long-term conviction. Either way, the world’s richest man is betting big on himself.

🏭 NY manufacturing craters

The Empire State Manufacturing Index collapsed from +11.9 to -8.7, far below expectations for a positive 5.0 print. It’s the latest sign of contraction in the US economy and helped feed gold’s Monday surge. More pre-FOMC indicators are dropping today, including retail sales, industrial production, and homebuilder confidence.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 New US–China deal just saved TikTok. Now what?

TikTok has been a thorn in DC–Beijing relations for years, well before the current tariff battles.

Long story short: the White House has been forcing ByteDance, its Chinese parent, to sell TikTok to a US buyer. But deadline after deadline, the deal kept getting pushed.

Tomorrow would have triggered a nationwide ban if no agreement was in place.

📌 What we know

Fresh reports yesterday suggest an initial agreement has finally been reached. 

Trump rushed to Truth Social to brag about a deal with “a ‘certain’ company that young people [in] our Country very much wanted to be saved.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was more measured.

 “On the TikTok deal itself, we are very close or we’ve resolved the issue… At present, we are not willing to sacrifice our national security for a social-media app,” he said.

🔎 The speculation

• Oracle is the frontrunner to buy TikTok

• Shares of the Texas giant popped 3.4% on the headlines

• ByteDance’s ownership is capped at 20% under a Biden-era law

• Trump has already issued two reprieves to keep TikTok alive in the US

💡 Why it matters

TikTok might not mean much to traders who don’t use the app, but this deal could ripple far beyond social media. 

A sale would shake up US markets — especially if Oracle or another public name lands it — and could even thaw the icy US–China trade relationship.

Talks are already underway in Europe as Trump and Xi Jinping prep for a one-on-one later this week. 

“The big Trade Meeting in Europe between the United States of America, and China, has gone VERY WELL!… The relationship remains a very strong one,” he said.

💼 Fiverr layoffs spark AI job fears

With unemployment creeping higher and hiring slowing to a crawl, layoff headlines are starting to feel routine. But the latest round at Fiverr lands with a sharper sting.

🔄 Pivot to “AI-first”

In a letter to employees Monday, CEO Micha Kaufman said Fiverr is cutting roughly 250 jobs as part of a pivot to become an “AI-first company.” 

Kaufman argued the company needs to “go back to startup mode” to survive today’s market.

“We need to accelerate this mode of work… dream bigger and build faster, using this moment to build what’s next for Fiverr on a modern, clean, AI-focused infrastructure from the ground up,” he said.

📊 The spin vs. the bigger picture

Fiverr says it will reinvest payroll savings into AI projects, which it expects will help it hit its long-term 25% adjusted EBITDA margin target a year early.

Kaufman has stressed the pivot could create specialized new roles, but the layoffs still highlight the broader reality: AI is displacing jobs faster than it’s creating them.

Geoffrey Hinton, the Nobel laureate often called a “godfather of AI,” recently warned the trend is only beginning.

“What’s actually going to happen is rich people are going to use AI to replace workers. It’s going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits. It will make a few people much richer and most people poorer. That’s not AI’s fault, that is the capitalist system,” he said.

Fiverr may call it reinvention. To many workers, it looks like replacement.

🇬🇧🇺🇸 Tea, tiaras, and tariffs

King Charles and Queen Camilla will host President Trump and First Lady Melania tonight, followed by a state dinner tomorrow. 

But this trip is about more than palace pageantry. Trump is reportedly pressing UK officials for fresh trade commitments as part of his wider global reset.

💰 $10B in new deals expected

The US is lining up more than $10 billion in new investments, broken into three main buckets:

• A science-based partnership to boost US–UK tech capabilities

• A joint push to expand civil nuclear energy production

• Deeper cooperation in defense technology

After the royal formalities, Trump will sit down with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and hold a joint press conference before returning to Washington on Thursday. 

One US official said the visit “gives the president the opportunity to strengthen ties with a particularly close partner and ally, while advancing mutual economic and foreign policy interests.”

🌍 A busy trade week

Markets back home are glued to tomorrow’s Fed cut, but the administration’s bandwidth this week is all trade. 

Alongside the UK talks, US negotiators will meet with Indian counterparts as tensions simmer over New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

Trump doubled tariffs on Indian imports last month after talks in New Delhi fell apart, but a breakthrough could be around the corner. 

Trump’s pick for US ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, said negotiators are “not that far apart” from closing a deal.