Good morning,

Trump is dialing down trade threats just enough to soothe Wall Street, but China fires back with export curbs and hints at more retaliation.

Meanwhile, the tariff fallout is hitting home. Goldman says Americans will swallow more than half the cost of those “Liberation Day” levies by year-end.

Bitcoin is bouncing back after Friday’s scare, while Citi is making a bold move into crypto custody, proof that even the old guard can’t ignore crypto forever.

And in classic Dimon fashion, JPMorgan just threw $10 billion at America’s “economic security,” betting on AI, minerals, and defense to keep the country’s industrial backbone from rusting.

But the real winners right now are hiding in plain sight.

Gold is charging past $4,150 an ounce, silver is at an all-time high... and investors are emptying their jewelry boxes like it’s the 1970s all over again.

This week may give quite a few insights on policy. 

With Powell, Waller, and Bostic all talking today, and the Beige Book up next, investors are expecting clues on just how fast the Fed’s ready to cut.

Let’s dig in.

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

🇺🇸 Tariff burden shifts to consumers

Goldman says American shoppers will end up footing most of the bill for Trump’s tariffs, or about 55% of the total cost by year-end. Businesses will shoulder roughly a quarter as they keep passing along higher import prices. Goldman expects core inflation to hit 3% by December, squeezing already thin household budgets and margins if companies can’t offset tariffs anymore.

🛢️ Big Oil is losing steam

After two years of record profits, the oil giants are running on fumes. Analysts say Exxon, Chevron, BP, and Shell are in cost-cutting mode as crude drifts into the mid-$60s. Buybacks have already slowed, dividends are murky, and Q3 earnings later this month will show just how much breathing room is left. “A cut in a dividend would send shivers through Wall Street,” warned IEEFA’s Clark Williams-Derry.

🏦 Citi gets into crypto custody

Another Wall Street heavyweight is wading deeper into digital assets. Citi plans to launch a crypto custody service next year, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum for clients. The bank’s looking at both in-house and third-party support to bring the platform online. Unlike JPMorgan, which lets clients trade crypto without custody, Citi’s betting that stricter regulation will drive more demand for secure storage. It’s the latest sign the old guard is reluctantly embracing digital assets. 

🏛️ Fed talk takes center stage

All eyes are on the Fed again. Powell, Waller, Miran, and Bostic are all on mic today, which may give investors a clearer read on how soon rate cuts might come. The Beige Book also lands tomorrow with a fresh snapshot of where the economy is at.  Expect every word from today’s speeches to be parsed for clues.

₿ Bitcoin bounces back, still shy of last week’s high

Crypto is clawing back ground after Friday’s drop. Bitcoin climbed above $116,000 Monday after briefly dipping below $110,000, though it remains about 8% under last week’s record. The rebound in crypto is across the board, signaling that investors are back in risk-on mode, at least for now.

🪙 Gold at $4,155. Time to sell your heirlooms?

With gold smashing through new all-time highs, the precious metals market is in full-on frenzy mode... and everyone from jewelers to refiners is working overtime to keep up with the rush.

💍 A sign of the times

David Iskhakov of Manhattan’s Exclusive Jewelers says his shop is now buying twice the volume of gold it did just a year ago. 

“People are coming in with their grandparents’ stuff, birthday gifts, ex-boyfriends’ stuff … odds and ends, broken jewelry,” he said.

He’s not alone. Refineries like WE Mowrey in Minnesota and Cascade Refining in Utah report supply spikes of up to 75% as Americans cash in on record prices.

But record metal prices cut both ways. While sellers are celebrating windfall profits, jewelry sales are slumping as higher prices push many items out of reach. 

Iskhakov says sales are down about 20% year over year, with shoppers opting for thinner, lower-carat, or hollow gold pieces to stretch their budgets.

Craig Hirschey of WE Mowrey adds that refiners are now offloading surplus metal to larger facilities at slimmer margins because “demand is gone” thanks to sky-high costs.

🗳️ A vote of no confidence in paper assets

This precious metals boom isn’t just about commodity prices.

Fear of a stock market bubble, mounting debt, and doubts over the dollar’s stability are all driving investors toward hard assets. 

Wall Street dubbed this the "debasement trade," which effectively is a vote of no confidence in everything else. And it’s not just gold that is exempt from it. 

Silver’s rally has been even more explosive:

• Silver futures hit an all-time high yesterday, jumping 7% in a single day

• The iShares Silver Trust ETF is up roughly 68% this year

• Silver’s 75% YTD gain (and platinum’s 80% run) easily outpace gold

Even if you’re not digging through the attic for melt-down material, there’s a clear message in this record-setting rally: investors are bullish, but confidence in paper assets is fading.

📉 Stocks drop again as China bites back

Wall Street bounced back to start the week after President Trump dialed back his US-China trade threats... but China struck back with new shipping curbs, sending futures lower this morning. 

🤝 A diplomatic balancing act

Trump’s threat of new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports triggered the worst day for stocks since April on Friday. His late-Sunday social media remarks helped reverse the slide, but the tug-of-war is far from over.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced Trump's message, saying Trump “wants to help China, not hurt it,” and still expects a US-China summit later this month.

Bessent downplayed concerns over China’s new export controls on rare earth minerals but warned that “everything’s on the table” if Beijing’s hard-liners push back. 

The shift isn’t just in DC or Beijing. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is on a delicate mission this week to keep trade channels open. 

While Foreign Minister Anita Anand heads to China, Carney’s team is promoting a North American steel and aluminum pact as a buffer against Chinese influence. 

China responded this morning by sanctioning the US units of a South Korean shipping giant and threatening more retaliation, the latest in a series of tit-for-tat moves.

📦 Trade still drives the tape

Friday’s selloff, Monday’s rebound, and today’s futures drop on China news show just how much of good news is priced into this record rally.

With inflation data delayed by the ongoing shutdown, investors are hanging on every word from the White House for economic clues. 

The takeaway for investors is simple: trade-related volatility isn’t going away. Analysts are doubling down on calls for diversification and defensive balance sheets.

While most strategists are bullish on gold, PIMCO has a different take: lock in yields on high-quality bonds to protect long-term returns.

Bonds were closed for the holiday Monday, so we’ll see how that market reacts once trading resumes today. 

📈 Which stocks could win from JPMorgan’s $10B gambit?

America's largest bank, JPMorgan, announced yesterday plans to pour up to in direct-equity and venture-capital investments into companies across AI, mineral production, and defense.

This is part of the bank's broader $1.5 trillion commitment to support the “security and resiliency” of industries critical to the US and its allies. 

🏦 The bank’s logic

CEO Jamie Dimon pointed to regulatory, educational, and political constraints that have left the US “too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products, and manufacturing, all essential for national security.”

“Security is predicated on the strength and resiliency of America’s economy,” Dimon said, touting JPMorgan’s capital injection as a way to give the nation the “speed and investment” needed to correct course.

The gambit isn’t without risk. 

Many of the targeted sectors face heavy regulatory hurdles, and a roaring bull market could make security-focused investments a tougher sell.

But so far, investors are buying into Dimon’s gambit, with JPMorgan up 2.35% to start the week.

🚀 Who might see upside

JPMorgan already has ties to some of these industries, including chipmaker Intel and rare-earth producer MP Materials. 

Defense contractors and AI startups are also on the radar.

Quantum computing stocks jumped following the announcement, with Rigetti, D-Wave, and IONQ seeing notable upticks.

Mary Erdoes, head of JPMorgan’s asset and wealth management division, hinted the total could rise.

“Up to 10 billion is where we’re going to get focused and get going,” she said. “We’ll review it as time passes and see how successful we are.”

🏛️ Public vs. private

While the Trump administration has made headlines for strategic investments in similar sectors, Dimon emphasized that JPMorgan is “doing it independently” and hasn’t coordinated with the White House.

The bank does plan to set up an advisory committee combining private and public representatives to help accelerate growth in these pivotal industries.