Good morning,

Trump just hit Putin where it really hurts, slapping tariffs on Russia’s crown-jewel oil producers and targeting his most loyal crude buyers in India and China.

Sources familiar with the matter at the White House say Russian oil flows to India refiners are expected to trickle down to near zero.

Meanwhile, Washington’s shutdown grinds into Day 23, costing the economy nearly a billion dollars a day and shaving 0.1–0.2% off GDP each week, according to Oxford Economics.

Interestingly, that didn’t reinforce the “debasement trade”... quite the opposite. Gold is in its worst rout in a decade, while the dollar is quietly picking up.

In another contradiction, there’s a growing sentiment clash of 2021-style meme euphoria and AI hedging.

Meme traders are back chasing sugar highs, with Krispy Kreme jumping another 20% yesterday, while Meta’s trimming its AI staff and job creation just hit a 16-year low.

And to top it off, Big Tech stumbled into earnings season.

Netflix flopped big time, chip stocks followed, and Tesla’s mixed results left Wall Street questioning whether the bull rally is finally starting to sputter.

Let’s dig in.

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

🛢️ Trump tightens the screws on Russia

Oil jumped after Washington slapped new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil as Trump tries to push Putin toward a peace deal. The White House is also turning the screws on Moscow’s biggest crude buyers, India and China.

🏛️ Shutdown costs keep growing

Day 23 and counting... the second-longest government shutdown in history is starting to bite. Economists at Oxford Economics estimate every week off the clock shaves 0.1–0.2 percentage points off GDP. Roughly $800 million in federal contracts are disrupted daily, and that figure could balloon to $1.3 billion if the impasse drags into December.

🪙 Gold crash puts “debasement trade” into question

Gold just logged its worst single-day drop in more than a decade, tumbling nearly 6% before extending losses yesterday. The selloff comes as the dollar firms up and 10-year Treasury yields drift lower, throwing a wrench into the once-unstoppable safe-haven trade that’s defined 2025 so far.

🌐 Tariff tug-of-war keeps investors in the dark

Washington and New Delhi are reportedly close to a deal cutting import tariffs after India’s pledge to scale back Russian oil imports. But China remains in the crosshairs, with Trump threatening 100% tariffs unless Beijing eases rare-earth export curbs. At the same time, the White House is quietly trimming auto tariffs and launching new probes into drug pricing, leaving investors with more questions than answers.

🤖 Meta layoffs expose AI overinvestment?

Meta’s cutting roughly 600 jobs in its AI division. The company’s latest Llama 4 model fell flat, while ballooning data-center and partner costs are forcing belt-tightening. AI spending is still expected to rise next year, but targeted layoffs suggest the AI boom may be entering its first real test.

🧁 Meme traders chase 2021 déjà vu

Meme traders are back chasing the ghosts of 2021.

Another burst of speculative buying sent a handful of meme-stock darlings soaring this week... before paring most of the gains just as fast.

🍩 Glazed and confused

Krispy Kreme jumped more than 20% yesterday, its biggest move since July, before closing up just under 9%.

The same crowd piled into Beyond Meat, with roughly $35 million in new retail inflows marking a record for the company. GoPro also popped 14% before losing steam by the close.

Beyond Meat’s trading day stood out the most. The stock spiked more than 900% on news of a new Walmart distribution deal, only to crash later in the day and erase nearly all of the move. 

In the end, Beyond Meat finished the five-day stretch up more than 400%, proof that speculative fever hasn’t gone anywhere.

📈 What’s driving memes?

Analysts say the meme revival points to a growing appetite for risk as the broader market searches for direction.

Northwestern Mutual’s Matt Stucky called it “a throwback to 2021: the hope, dreams, themes, and memes environment.”

He added that the rally is being led by companies “that don’t have any positive earnings, maybe they’re losing money, really leading markets higher.”

So far, the hype hasn’t lived up to reality for most. Roundhill’s MEME ETF, which recently added Beyond Meat, has already fallen 17% this week.

Meme stocks can deliver quick wins, but history rarely changes. 

With today’s meme favorites still unprofitable and heavily shorted, the excitement might feel familiar... and so could the fallout.

🧠 'Low hire, low fire' jobs market

With official data still offline, no one really knows how the jobs market is doing. Private firms like Vanguard have stepped in to fill the gap, but what they’re seeing isn’t encouraging.

📉 What alternative data shows

Vanguard says job creation has slowed to its weakest sustained pace since 2009, when the country was crawling out of the Great Recession.

The firm’s data shows job growth stuck at just 0.1% in seven of the first nine months of the year, less than one-third the pace seen during the 2022 hiring peak.

That doesn’t signal a full-blown labor crisis yet, but it’s not healthy either.

Vanguard describes a “low-hire, low-fire” environment, where companies are holding payrolls steady while waiting for clarity on tariffs and immigration policy.

🤖 The AI squeeze

The bigger worry is what’s coming next. 

Companies from Amazon and JPMorgan to Ford, Salesforce, and Walmart have all said AI will replace a significant share of white-collar work.

Goldman Sachs estimates that 6–7% of jobs could eventually disappear, while Stanford researchers say entry-level hiring in AI-related fields has already dropped 13%.

Meanwhile, Gad Levanon of the Burning Glass Institute calls it the start of a “multi-decade transformation” of the labor market.

On the bright side, sectors like construction and healthcare may prove more resilient, but many desk jobs look increasingly vulnerable.

BLS labor data will be key to tracking the aftershocks in the economy. The irony is that data isn’t even being published right now.

📉 The Mag 7 hangover

Wall Street hit a midweek snag, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading declines to close down 0.9% after a brief afternoon rebound.

The S&P 500 and Dow also ended slightly lower yesterday, extending the week’s downtrend.

🎬 Blame Netflix and tariff rumors

The latest dip underscored how much this year’s rally still leans on the Magnificent 7.

Case in point: Netflix. The streamer missed profit estimates, spooking investors already uneasy about an ongoing tax dispute in Brazil. The stock slid more than 10% for the day.

Texas Instruments also weighed on tech, finishing down 5.6%, while chipmakers joined the sell-off:

• AMD fell 3.3%

• Micron slipped 1.9%

• On Semiconductor lost 5.7%

General anxiety aside, rumor has it the White House is considering new export restrictions on products made with American software.

The proposed limits come just as global supply chains were starting to show signs of stability, reigniting concerns over another round of trade friction.

⚡ All eyes on Tesla

Markets open today digesting Tesla’s after-the-bell earnings.

The company beat revenue expectations but missed on earnings per share, sending shares down more than 3% in after-hours trading.

Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman warned that too many underwhelming tech reports could “seal the boom’s fate,” noting that several high-profile earnings so far have been “downbeat in tone.”

It’s another reminder that Big Tech’s record concentration can cut both ways.