Good morning,

Wall Street is shaking off Friday’s jobs scare, with futures flashing green again this morning. But yesterday wasn't exactly all roses.

Trump kicked off the week swinging at India, threatening to “substantially” raise tariffs on U.S.-bound goods while blasting Delhi for flipping Russian oil into big profits. 

Meanwhile, Europe has chickened out. Brussels is suspending countermeasures for six months, and Switzerland says it’s ready to sweeten its own trade deal.

Over in crypto land, Bitcoin is clinging to six figures but analysts warn the dreaded “August curse” could knock it back toward $100K. 

Oil is also on a downslide after BP struck its biggest hydrocarbon discovery in 25 years off Brazil’s coast, compounding OPEC+’s planned supply boost next month. 

And yes, American Eagle is suddenly the hottest name in retail — shares ripped 24% Monday — because Trump liked Sydney Sweeney’s jeans ad.

Let's dive in!

Quote of the day

Five things to know before opening bell

📉 Street says S&P 500's rally is on borrowed time

Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore all told clients Monday that the S&P 500 looks ready for a near-term slide. After ripping from April’s lows to record highs, strategists say stretched valuations are finally colliding with weak economic data, and that combination usually doesn’t end well for bulls.

🇮🇳 Trump targets India with tariff bombshell

Trump isn’t done swinging tariffs around. On Monday, he said he’ll “substantially raise” duties on Indian exports to the U.S., accusing New Delhi of buying Russian oil cheap and reselling it for fat profits. India called the move “unjustified,” but the message was clear: the trade war’s not slowing down, it’s opening a new front.

🇪🇺 Europe chickens out on countermeasures

Europe’s tariff response is suddenly looking soft. The EU says it’ll suspend countermeasures against the U.S. for six months, and Switzerland’s already hinting at a sweeter trade deal after Washington slapped a 39% tariff on its goods. 

📊 Trade deficit report on deck

Today’s Census Bureau release will show how much tariffs and global market jitters chewed into June trade flows. In May, the goods and services deficit ballooned to $71.5 billion, up $11.3 billion from April. Compared to a year ago, trade is still running hot: exports up $18B, imports more than twice that. The Commerce Department’s own read last week showed the deficit in nearly two years thanks to slowing imports, so today’s numbers could seal the trend either way.

🛢️ BP discovery weighs down oil

Crude is sliding again after BP found its largest oil and gas reserve in 25 years off Brazil’s coast. It’s BP’s 10th big find this year and comes on top of OPEC+ pledging to boost supply next month. Economists think producers might have to scale back output later this year to avoid flooding the market. BP stock climbed 2.3% Monday as traders priced in a fatter reserve book.

👖 Trump thinks Sydney is hot

Sydney Sweeney and Trump just handed American Eagle a monster rally. The retailer’s latest ad campaign — featuring the actress and her “great jeans” — got hit with backlash, but Trump jumped in, calling it the “HOTTEST ad out there” and claiming the jeans are “flying off the shelves.” AEO stock soared nearly 24% Monday, proving again that a presidential post can move markets faster than most earnings beats.

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🙅‍♂️Two top analysts aren't buying doom talk

It’s been nothing but warning signs lately: jobs data hammered, inflation ticking up, and new tariffs locked and loaded. And yet, stocks keep brushing it all off.

With stocks in the green again to start the week, some big names think the doom talk is overdone.

🌍 Goldman’s global bullish case

Goldman Sachs’ Anshul Sehgal says bearish U.S. trends don’t change the bank’s bigger-picture outlook.

Looking abroad, Germany is ramping up defense spending, China’s leading in AI and robotics, and Trump’s "big, beautiful bill" is poised to light up the credit markets.

Sehgal called it “nothing but good news for the global economy,” adding that the legislation, combined with AI and robotics, “has the potential … to unleash a credit boom domestically in addition to the fiscal expansion we’ve witnessed over the last four years.”

Even with tariffs sowing uncertainty, Sehgal isn’t rattled. “It is a one-time tax,” he said. “Once it’s factored and starting early next year … you’ve got bonus depreciation … social security tax benefits and the lower taxes on tips,” he said.

“The combination … is very powerful for the U.S. economy in our view.”

📈 Fundstrat says buy the dip

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, known for calling past rallies, is on board with Goldman Sachs and sees last week’s market shock as “an obvious buy the dip moment.”

“The economy is solid and soft enough that the Fed needs to make insurance cuts,” Lee said, pointing to rising odds of a September rate trim.

Lee's colleague, Fundstrat’s technical chief Mark Newton, backs him up: “For now, I see further downside as being short-lived and largely contained.”

⚠️ Moody’s calls recession

Not everyone is convinced this trade war will blow past like that.

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi thinks the U.S. is “on the precipice of recession,” citing flatlined consumer spending, contracting construction and manufacturing, and looming job losses.

“And with inflation on the rise,” Zandi warned, “it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue.”

🇺🇸 Trump eyes Fed and BLS shake-up

Two major economic posts are suddenly up for grabs, and Trump’s already teasing replacements that could change monetary policy and data reporting for good.

📝 Quick recap

Late Friday, Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler abruptly resigned months before her term was set to end in January. No reason given. 

Trump said he has “a couple of people in mind” to fill the seat, with former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh and Council of Economic Advisers chair Kevin Hassett floated as early contenders. 

An announcement could come as soon as today.

On the same day, BLS head Erika McEntarfer was fired after releasing what Trump called a “rigged” jobs report. In a fiery post, he said the disappointing data cost McEntarfer her job.

⚠️ Controversy sparks criticism

Not everyone is on board with the moves. 

William Beach, Trump’s first-term pick to lead the BLS, called the firing “damaging,” adding: “I don’t know that there’s any grounds at all for this firing.”

Others say this is Trump’s chance to stack the Fed with officials aligned with his call for sharp rate cuts. 

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett defended the ouster, saying: “To make sure that the data are as transparent and as reliable as possible, we’re going to get highly qualified people in there that have a fresh start and a fresh set of eyes on the problem.”

📌 Bottom line: Trump has got two key openings to put his stamp on policy — one at the Fed, one at the BLS — and markets are bracing for what comes next.

₿ Bitcoin’s "August curse" is back

Crypto has been flexing its still-fresh muscles all year. But August is here and Bitcoin is already slipping, reviving talk of the so-called “August curse.”

📉 The curse in numbers

Bitcoin popped with the broader market early this week but still closed last night 2.5% below where it started the month. 

Historically, August has been brutal for the crypto:

• BTC’s finished lower in 8 of the past 12 years

• The average August drop is a steep 11.4%

• A typical slide this month would drag prices to about $105,000

Robert Kiyosaki thinks the sell-off could run even deeper, calling for a potential dip to $90K. Nevertheless, he’s telling investors to buy the dip.

“The Bitcoin August Curse will make most Bitcoin investors richer,” he wrote, blaming “multi trillion dollar debt and incompetent PhDs running the SWAMP” for the volatility.

Sticking to what’s probably the wildest crypto call out there, Kiyosaki is still doubling down on his end-of-decade $1 million Bitcoin prediction.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is less bearish but not exactly bullish, citing a softening labor market and August’s ugly track record as reasons Bitcoin might sink to $100K before finding its footing.