Good morning,

September kicked off with a bang… or a gold-plated thud, if you will.

For the first time in history, gold hit $3,500 and silver $41. Even Bitcoin is becoming something of a new risk-off trade on Wall Street, with corporate stockpiles growing and all.

That's not to say about risk-on assets, with stock futures down ahead of Trump’s surprise announcement.

According to the White House, Trump is set to make an Oval Office address at 2 pm today, with rumors swirling about possible troop deployments.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is bracing for a short week packed with PMI data, Fed speeches, inflation clues, and a potentially market-moving jobs report on Friday.

It all builds toward the September 17 rate decision. So far, markets think it's a near lock, pricing in a 90% chance of a cut.

But that’s not the only lever driving the market. Intel-style deal rumors are back. And the S&P 500’s next big move may hinge on whether the AI rally still has legs.

Let’s dive in.

Quote of the day 

Six things to know before opening bell

🇺🇸 Trump announcement at 2 pm

The White House says President Trump will make a surprise Oval Office announcement at 2 pm ET today. No topic confirmed yet, but rumors point to potential National Guard deployments in Chicago.

📉 Fed week kicks off

It’s a short week but a packed one. The Beige Book drops midweek, and a trio of Fed presidents — Musalem, Williams, and Goolsbee — are set to speak tomorrow and Thursday. Markets are still betting 90% odds on a rate cut on September 17.

💰 Gold fever is real
Precious metals are ripping as rate-cut bets rise. Gold surged past $3,500, silver is just under $41, and safe-haven demand is back in vogue. With rate uncertainty, policy risk, and a wobbling dollar, traders are betting hard on bullion to anchor portfolios.

🏭 PMI data due today

Today’s ISM and S&P manufacturing PMIs will show how badly recent headlines have hit factory demand. Last month’s numbers were brutal: 79% of the sector was in contraction. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, none grew in July. Not exactly a soft landing signal.

🤖 AI rally still has legs?

The AI boom may still have room to run... at least if Evercore’s Julian Emanuel is right. He’s projecting the S&P 500 could hit 7,750 by the end of next year, driven by AI-powered earnings beats. But he’s also bracing for anything between 5,000 and 9,000. So… hedge accordingly.

🇺🇸 Intel 2.0

The Trump administration may be shopping for more “strategic” investments after its blockbuster stake in Intel. Defense contractors, nuclear firms, and now AI data centers are reportedly in the mix. “Data centers are at risk because they need a tremendous amount of energy and they have to go through a permitting process that gives the government great leverage over them,” said Brookings’ Darrell West.

📆 Why the next 3 weeks could make or break this market

Today marks the first trading session of September… and the start of what analysts say could be the most consequential three-week stretch for Wall Street in months.

🏛️ More than just the Fed

Yes, the September 17 FOMC meeting is the headline event. But it’s far from the only thing that could shake markets this month.

“Investors are assuming correctly to be cautious in September,” said Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee. “The Fed is re-embarking on a dovish cutting cycle after a long pause. This makes it tricky for traders to position.”

What makes it trickier: a parade of other risk events still ahead, including:

• Friday’s jobs report, expected to show just 75,000 new jobs in August after a weak July and downward revisions to May and June

• Next Tuesday’s Current Employment Statistics survey, offering another read on labor conditions

• A fresh CPI report later next week, likely to reset inflation expectations

• Massive options expirations two days after the FOMC decision, potentially stoking more volatility

So far, traders are keeping their cool (the Cboe Volatility Index remains low), but history suggests that might be its own red flag.

🤖 Then there’s the AI wildcard

Julian Emanuel still sees runway in the AI-led rally, but even the bulls are hedging.

Tatyana Bunich of Financial 1 Tax said her team is still buying Big Tech, but added that “those shares are very pricey right now, so we’re holding some cash on the sidelines and waiting for any decent pullback before we add more to that position.”

That pullback could come fast.

“I expect this stock rally to stall soon,” warned Ed Yardeni.

“The market is discounting a lot of happy news, so if CPI is hot and there’s a strong jobs report, traders suddenly may conclude rate cuts aren’t necessarily a done deal, which may lead to a brief selloff. But stocks will recover once traders realize the Fed can’t cut rates by much because of a good reason: The economy is still strong.”

📌 Bottom line: September is packed with releases, and Wall Street’s next move could come down to how that data lines up or doesn’t.

🪙 Precious metals scream rate cuts

Precious metals came back from Labor Day swinging as traders piled into safe havens on the heels of rising uncertainty.

📈 What just happened

Silver jumped over $41 an ounce, up more than 2% on the day. Gold flirted with its all-time high, breaking $3,500 and hitting a record price at the London auction.

Both metals have now more than doubled from their levels three years ago.

“Gold and silver have suddenly sprung to life as both fundamentals and technicals aligned,” said Saxo Capital Markets strategist Charu Chanara.

“On top of that, key resistance levels around $3,450 for gold and $40 for silver were breached, triggering momentum buying.”

🏛️ “Blame” the Fed

With the Fed caught between last week’s inflation data and this week’s jobs numbers, traders spent the long weekend fretting about what’s next.

So far, markets are leaning toward a rate cut, and gold is reacting accordingly.

Morgan Stanley analysts Amy Gower and Martijn Rats aren’t surprised. “Fed rate cuts, a weakening USD, rising ETF inflows and better Indian imports should all be supportive for gold and silver,” they wrote.

“We see ~10% further upside for gold, while silver is trading almost at our forecast, with potential to overshoot.”

🔩 Bonus metals rally too

Platinum and palladium also rallied to start the week, but the breakout star was Avino Silver and Gold Mines, which has soared 423% year to date.

₿ Is boring Bitcoin the new gold?

Whether you found it thrilling, terrifying, or a bit of both, Bitcoin’s early years were nothing short of crazy. But in 2025, the crypto has been surprisingly "boring."

⚖️ Is less volatility a good thing?

Bitcoin has notched multiple new records this year and is still up 17% despite a recent dip. But the real surprise was the calm.

According to JPMorgan, both three- and six-month rolling volatility metrics are at multi-year lows thanks to the rise of corporate stockpiles.

“Corporate treasuries now hold over 6% of bitcoin’s total supply and act as a form of private sector quantitative easing for crypto markets,” said JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

“We believe a factor behind the collapse in bitcoin volatility has been the acceleration of bitcoin purchases by corporate treasuries.”

So far this year, public and private firms snapped up tens of billions in BTC. According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, “nearly two-thirds” of July’s institutional purchases came from public companies.

🛡️ From gamble to hedge?

Is this the end of explosive crypto gains? Will it push retail investors toward riskier altcoins? 

Too early to say, but one thing’s clear. Bitcoin’s newfound stability is making it look a lot more like a portfolio hedge than a lottery ticket.

And Panigirtzoglou thinks that shift could reshape investor behavior. 

Lower volatility makes Bitcoin “more attractive from a valuation point of view,” possibly turning it into a legitimate competitor to gold, he said.