Good morning,

"Wall Street’s starting to feel a little 1999." That’s according to Paul Tudor Jones, who says all the “ingredients are in place” for a dot-com-style melt-up.

Whether this is déjà vu or a spectacular rerun is anyone’s guess. 

As we discussed earlier, calling the top is almost impossible... and quotes like this are more of a PR play than anything of substance.

What we can actually observe is that the economy is showing new signs of strain.

The freight market is limping into the holiday season with at a record September low, and a growing number of Americans have stopped expecting a raise.

Meanwhile, commodities are on fire. Gold just smashed through $4,000 for the first time ever, as everyone from Ray Dalio to Jeffrey Gundlach calls it a must-own hedge in a “debasement trade” environment.

Copper also jumped on fresh Trump-era investments in rare earth projects, including a wild 250% spike in Trilogy Metals after the White House took a 10% stake.

With Q3 earnings about to kick off, expectations are all over the place. Goldman’s David Kostin says the bar is too low, while others warn the rally’s being carried by too few names.

Either way, the next few weeks will tell us if this rally has legs.

Let’s dig in.

Quote of the day 

Five things to know before opening bell

🚚 Rough start to the holiday shipping season

September usually kicks off peak season for U.S. freight, but this year’s data shows surprising weakness. The Logistics Managers’ Index put transportation utilization at its lowest level for any September on record, with the overall index slipping to 57.4, the weakest since March. Many companies front-loaded shipments earlier in the year to avoid tariffs, leaving warehouses full heading into the holidays.

🎰 NYSE owner bets big on betting

The Intercontinental Exchange (parent of the NYSE) is putting $2 billion into Polymarket, the fastest-growing crypto prediction platform. The deal values Polymarket around $8 billion and opens the door to future projects in tokenized markets. ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher said the partnership will “uniquely serve” new trading opportunities. The move also revives questions about Wall Street’s interest in prediction markets.

💸 Americans don't expect bigger paychecks

Americans are losing hopes for getting a raise. The New York Fed’s latest survey shows expected income growth at just 2.4% over the next year, the lowest in three years. More than 40% expect unemployment to rise, and fewer than half are confident they could find another job if they lost theirs. With official labor data still delayed by the shutdown, these surveys offer the clearest signal yet of a cooling job market.

⚡ Tesla gives back its event-tease gains

Tesla shares fell 4.5% Tuesday, erasing Monday’s rally after teaser posts about a possible new low-cost EV. Instead, the company unveiled “Standard” versions of the Model 3 and Model Y starting under $37,000 and $40,000. The trims could boost volume, but investors were expecting something bigger and sold the news.

📉 Stocks lose steam as tech slips

The record bull run hit pause Tuesday, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all edging lower as tech names retreated. Oracle led losses after weaker cloud margins tied to Nvidia deals, raising questions about AI spending payoffs. “At some point, investors will look at how much money is being spent and say, ‘What’s the return?’” said Ameriprise strategist Anthony Saglimbene.

🏅 Wall Street is going crazy over gold

As stocks waver, gold blasted through the $4,000/ounce ceiling for the first time yesterday, extending a historic rally that’s lifted the metal more than 50% this year.

📈 A closer look at the rally

Safe-haven demand has exploded thanks to record fiscal deficits, questions over Fed independence, and global trade uncertainty. 

The result is gold’s strongest run since the late 1970s.

• 2025 is on track for the metal’s best annual performance since 1979

• Gold-backed funds pulled in $26 billion in Q3 alone, according to the World Gold Council

• Trading activity hit 13 new all-time highs in September

That’s great for early investors, but at over $4,000 an ounce, has gold become too pricey for anyone just now looking to hedge?

💬 Analysts still see upside

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio isn’t backing off. 

“Gold is a very excellent diversifier,” he said yesterday, drawing parallels to the early 1970s when soaring spending and inflation eroded confidence in the dollar. 

He suggests holding around 15% of a portfolio in gold. DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach goes even further, calling for a 25% allocation. 

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both remain bullish. Goldman labels gold its “highest-conviction long” and JPMorgan forecasting it could hit $5,000 within two quarters on what it calls a “debasement trade.”

With markets jittery and inflation still a wild card, the case for hard assets keeps getting louder... and gold’s best year in generations shows plenty of investors are listening.

🤷 Nobody know what to expect of Q3 earnings 

After three months of mixed economic signals (and now federal data blackout), analysts simply don’t know what to expect this earnings season...

⚡ Setting the stage for surprises

Consensus forecasts for S&P 500 earnings put growth at 6% this quarter, just over half of the 11% from Q2. 

Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin thinks the bar is “too conservatively” set. He expects stronger-than-anticipated sales, with the Mag 7 tech names likely picking up the slack

His assessment hinges on the fact that, for the first time in roughly four years, analysts raised earnings estimates over the past quarter. 

FactSet reports July-to-September S&P 500 estimates ticked up by 0.1%, compared with typical declines of more than 1% in previous years.

🔀 Signals of a split market

This year’s earnings story is inseparable from the AI rally. But that upside is concentrated, and optimism isn’t evenly spread. 

Corporate guidance is split 56 positive vs. 56 negative, revealing clear sector patterns: tech, industrials, and financials lead growth expectations, while energy and consumer staples face margin compression from rising costs and weak demand.

Meanwhile, valuations are high, leaving little room for error. Analysts will pay close attention to three main themes:

• Margins: Can companies sustain historically high profits in the era of tariffs?

• Guidance: Will executives stay bullish on year-end outlooks, or signal caution?

• Performance: AI is this rally's elephant in the room, and the Mag 7 is expected to set the tone

IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp also flagged retail, restaurants, and consumer discretionary as sectors that will reveal the “health of the U.S. consumer.” 

He notes that cooling labor markets and normalizing savings could force a reassessment of growth expectations.

🇺🇸 Guessing Trump’s next rare earth deal could apparently make you rich 

Uncle Sam's investments in rare earth operations are shaking up the mining sector... with shares of several industry leaders spiking on confirmed or rumored White House-backed deals.

🏔 The Trilogy Metals deal

Trilogy Metals shares soared more than 250% yesterday, settling slightly lower but still finishing the session more than three times higher. 

The move comes after the Trump administration took a 10% equity stake and approved construction of an access road to the Ambler Mining District in Alaska.

TMQ owns half of Ambler Mining, a joint venture with rights to the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects. 

Under President Biden, the Bureau of Land Management had cited environmental and tribal concerns in opposing the project. 

Copper futures also jumped more than 1% on the news.

🔍 Other companies in the spotlight

Trilogy’s surge follows similar deals in recent months:

• The federal government took a 10% stake in Lithium Americas, planning the largest lithium mine in the Western Hemisphere

• A $400 million Pentagon investment secured a stake in MP Materials and added export restrictions to China

Investors are now trying to guess the Trump administration’s next target. 

Potential plays include domestic uranium and graphite producers, plus Australian miners like Lynas Rare Earths. ETFs focused on rare earths is another play, but analysts caution that government-backed speculation is risky.

“At this point, it’s more speculative behavior,” said TD Cowen analyst David Deckelbaum. “Retail investors, in particular, tend to follow momentum. Once that momentum stalls, sentiment can reverse just as fast.”