4% Gain in Pending Home Sales Isn't Exactly What it Seems

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month rate shifts (which could also simply be coincidental). Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month) Northeast: −1.1% Midwest: +8.7% South: +3.1% West: +5.0% Regional YoY Change Northeast: +2.6% Midwest: +6.7% South: +4.2% West: +0.2% Three of the four regions posted solid monthly gains, led by the Midwest and West. On a yearly basis, all four regions were slightly positive, with the Midwest again the strongest performer.

October 3, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% -0.02%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.03%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 3, 2025 Mortgage Rates Lowest Since Fed Day Fri, Oct 3, 2025 3:51PM Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable.  But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the weakness (and yesterday's strength).  Specifically, bonds improved yesterday afternoon but not enough for the avera... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.03% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.76% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.05% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/3 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.55% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/2 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.46% +0.12 0.61 15 Yr. Fixed 5.76% +0.06 0.68 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.54% +0.10 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/1 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.48 -0.14   95.05 99.96 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.00 -0.09   97.47 101.28 10 YR Treasury 4.120 +0.038   3.839 4.780 Slightly Weaker After Mixed ISM Data Fri, Oct 3, 2025 10:12AM With NFP on hold due to the shutdown, today's ISM Services was our only chance for for data driven volatility in the 2nd half of the week.  A big beat/miss in this report is certainly capable of moving the needle, but today's example is mixed.  New orders fell sharply, but employment ticked up slightly (and employment may be a bit more tradeable ri... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.43 -0.14 UMBS 5.0 99.48 -0.14 UMBS 5.5 101.00 -0.09 GNMA 4.5 97.43 -0.09 GNMA 5.0 99.67 -0.16 GNMA 5.5 100.84 -0.06 Pricing as of: 10/3 4:16PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.574 +0.038 5 YR Treasury 3.711 +0.042 7 YR Treasury 3.901 +0.045 10 YR Treasury 4.120 +0.038 30 YR Treasury 4.713 +0.025 Pricing as of: 10/3 4:16PM EST Other News 4% Gain in Pending Home Sales Isn't Exactly What it Seems Fri, Oct 3, 2025 3:22PM The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month l... (read more) Home Price Growth May be The Lowest in Years, But Home Prices Remain Near All-Time Highs Fri, Oct 3, 2025 3:03PM Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. Th... (read more) Hedging, Homeowner Intelligence, AI Tools; Agency Shutdown Developments; California MBA CEO Interview Fri, Oct 3, 2025 11:46AM Here in Telluride, CO, after learning of my capital markets background, yesterday someone bluntly asked me, “Can one person slow or stop the United States economy, or the world economy?” I was taken aback by the question, but it isn’t totally off-base: no one is saying a shutdown helps GDP. In eight months, we’ve learned not to underestimate the changes that... 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