Can The Fed Pull Mortgage Rates Off The Ceiling?

Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday's levels. Why surprising?  Because the bond market was noticeably weaker and bonds dictate day to day mortgage rate movement. In Tuesday's case, we can actually reconcile the steadiness with the timing of bond market movement. Specifically, bonds didn't lose ground until after the 10am release of the Job Openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most mortgage lenders consider bond market levels before 10am when setting rates for the day. The implication is that if bonds are at the same levels tomorrow morning, the average lender would set rates higher. Tomorrow afternoon brings another potential source of volatility in the form of the latest Fed announcement.  The most important thing to understand about tomorrow's probably Fed rate cut is that it is NOT a mortgage rate cut.  In fact, mortgage rates have been more likely to move higher following recent Fed cuts. Even then, the cut itself is not the news the market is waiting for. Rather, traders are interested to see each Fed member's rate outlook via the quarterly release of the Fed's economic projections. In addition, every Fed meeting includes a press conference with the Fed Chair and bonds have often made the biggest moves in response. Bottom line: the rate cut means nothing for mortgage rates. Volatility will come from the 2pm ET dot plot (the chart that shows each Fed members' rate outlook) and the 2:30pm press conference.

December 9, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.01%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.79% -0.01%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.45% +0.00%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 9, 2025 Can The Fed Pull Mortgage Rates Off The Ceiling? Tue, Dec 9, 2025 3:59PM Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday's levels. Why surprising?  Because the bond market was noticeably weaker and bonds dictate day to day mortgage rate movement. In Tuesday's case, we can actually reconcile the steadiness with the timing of bond market movement. Specifically, bonds didn't lose ground until after the 10am release of the Job Openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most mortgage lenders consider bond market levels before 10am when setting rates for the day. The implication is that if bonds are at the s... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.79% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.93% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.45% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.01% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/9 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.19% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.44% -0.07 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.32% -0.08 0.58 15 Yr. Fixed 5.73% -0.07 0.64 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% -0.09 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/3 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.10 -0.22   95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.85 -0.15   97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.181 +0.018   3.932 4.780 Job Openings Data Causing Weakness in Bonds Tue, Dec 9, 2025 11:36AM Tuesday is a fairly straightforward session for the bond market.  By now, we assume most of the pre-Fed positioning would be out of the way, and we know there was a decent amount of anticipation for the JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). True to form, volume spiked to its highest levels since the 11/20 delayed release of the jobs repor... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 96.99 -0.29 UMBS 5.0 99.10 -0.22 UMBS 5.5 100.85 -0.15 GNMA 4.5 97.00 -0.09 GNMA 5.0 99.44 +0.02 GNMA 5.5 100.73 +0.01 Pricing as of: 12/9 4:26PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.607 +0.035 5 YR Treasury 3.776 +0.030 7 YR Treasury 3.963 +0.024 10 YR Treasury 4.181 +0.018 30 YR Treasury 4.805 +0.003 Pricing as of: 12/9 4:26PM EST Other News Home Equity, Borrower Mining, Flood Tools; Milliman/MorVest Deal; Credit Cost News; Prepayments Slowing Tue, Dec 9, 2025 11:43AM “Seminar ‘How to avoid frauds’ is canceled. Tickets are non-refundable.” Collectively, we don’t want mortgage fraud, right? It’s a non-partisan issue. A grand jury rejected a new mortgage fraud indictment against New York Attorney General Letitia James. Meanwhile, it must be difficult living under a constant microscope, and yesterday a story broke that “Trum... (read more) Latest Video October job openings and labor turnover: 7.67M vs. 7.2M estimated Former Cleveland President Mester: I hope the Fed pauses for a while after ... CNBC Fed Survey: 45% of respondents say the Fed should cut by 25 bps in Dec... Fed commentary and tone much more important than rate decision, says Citi W... Around the Web BLS JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – OCTOBER 2025 Yahoo ADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate Calculated Risk Blog 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November Realtor.com Home sellers are giving up at 'unusually high rate,' says new Realtor report Realtor.com Soaring Insurance Premiums Have Homeowners Gambling With Their Coverage To Save Money Marketwatch This week's Fed meeting will highlight the central bank's challenge: Preventing a recession while tackling inflation Eye on Housing Construction Labor Market Stable Calculated Risk Blog December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year CNBC Property Play: Commercial real estate deal volume drops for the first time in nearly two years CNBC Treasury yields little changed as markets await jobs report Calculated Risk Blog Housing December 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.7% Week-over-week Eye on Housing Community Associations: A Growing Trend in 2024 Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: More on the Neutral Interest Rate (R*)

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