If You're One of Those People Asking How Much Lower Your Mortgage Rate Quote is After Fed Day, This is Required Reading

It's day two of mortgage rates surging higher--now back to the highest levels in 2 weeks (the day before the September 5th jobs report). The juxtaposition of yesterday's Fed rate cut and the sudden mortgage rate spike is incredibly confusing to most of the population, so let's clear it up. SHORT VERSION:   The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) doesn't dictate mortgage rates The FFR only changes on Fed announcement days, 8 times a year.  It changes in response to various economic reports and events. Mortgage rates change daily and the bonds that drive mortgage rates change in real-time throughout the day.  That means mortgage rates can drop for all the same reasons that drove yesterday's rate cut. Because those reasons were already in play well before yesterday, mortgage rates had already responded to them well before yesterday. Bottom line: the Fed Funds Rate and mortgage rates dropped for the same reasons, but mortgage rates got to do it sooner because they move more nimbly.  LONG VERSION: We've written and re-written the long version too many times to count.  Here is one of the most evergreen examples: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09212022 SPECIAL NOTE REGARDING OTHER NEWS STORIES SAYING RATES ARE LOWER: There are an unfortunate number of news articles out there today that claim mortgage rates are LOWER.  This is due to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey dropping to 6.26 from 6.35 last week. Freddie's rate is an average of the 5 days ending yesterday, so 80% of the input is comprised of the lowest rates in a long time.  News organizations then quote the survey and give the impression that this week's rates are lower than last week's.

September 18, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.37% +0.15%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.88% +0.13%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.11%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 18, 2025 If You're One of Those People Asking How Much Lower Your Mortgage Rate Quote is After Fed Day, This is Required Reading Thu, Sep 18, 2025 3:40PM It's day two of mortgage rates surging higher--now back to the highest levels in 2 weeks (the day before the September 5th jobs report). The juxtaposition of yesterday's Fed rate cut and the sudden mortgage rate spike is incredibly confusing to most of the population, so let's clear it up. SHORT VERSION:   The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) doesn't dictate mortgage rates The FFR only changes on Fed announcement days, 8 times a year.  It changes in response to various economic reports and events. Mortgage rates change daily and the bonds that drive mortgage rates change in real-time th... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.37% +0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.88% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.05% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.11 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.77% +0.12 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.07% +0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/18 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.26% -0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/18 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.48 -0.10   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.04 +0.01   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.103 +0.022   3.706 4.780 Losing Ground After Stronger Econ Data Thu, Sep 18, 2025 9:28AM This morning's economic reports (jobless claims and Philly Fed) are not notoriously big market movers, but many analysts gave ample credit to Claims for driving last Thursday morning's rally.  Now today, claims are right back in line with the same low levels from 2 weeks ago.  Continued Claims are also much lower than expected, including a friendly... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.41 -0.22 UMBS 5.0 99.48 -0.10 UMBS 5.5 101.04 +0.01 GNMA 4.5 97.49 -0.53 GNMA 5.0 99.74 -0.09 GNMA 5.5 100.87 -0.01 Pricing as of: 9/18 4:21PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.566 +0.002 5 YR Treasury 3.661 +0.005 7 YR Treasury 3.850 +0.010 10 YR Treasury 4.103 +0.022 30 YR Treasury 4.719 +0.031 Pricing as of: 9/18 4:21PM EST Other News Internal Audit, Servicing Risk, Rate Reset, Market Analysis Products; Rate's Spanish Program; Fed Cut, Now What? Thu, Sep 18, 2025 11:48AM JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, PNC Bank, N.A. and others announced a decrease in its prime lending rate to 7.25 percent, effective today, Sept. 18. As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the overnight Fed Funds rate by .250. Stephen Miran, who was sworn in just before the two-day policy meeting and is remaining a White House e... (read more) Latest Video Mortgage rates up after Fed rate cut Fed Chair Powell: High rates have burdened the housing industry Leading economic indicators +0.5% vs. -0.2% estimated Jobless claims return to norm after one-week spike Around the Web Marketwatch Surge in jobless claims unwinds after recent spike. Layoffs still low. Eye on Housing The Fed Cuts and Projects More Easing to Come Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on August Existing Home Sales, and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads CNBC Mortgage refinance demand spikes nearly 60%, as interest rates drop sharply CNBC Fed approves quarter-point interest rate cut and sees two more coming this year CNBC Treasury yields dip as investors evaluate Fed's latest interest rate decision Calculated Risk Blog "A Dirty Little Secret" Reuters US single-family housing starts, building permits drop in August Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month High CNBC Treasury yields trade cautiously ahead of Federal Reserve's rate call this week Seeking Alpha U.S. retail sales strengthen more than consensus in August CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors await the Feds interest rate decision Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in August

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