Mortgage Applications Responded to Lower Rates, But Things Are Already Changing

Mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, driven by lower rates and a rebound in refinance activity. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, total volume rose 7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 9% from the previous week and is now 111% higher than the same week one year ago. Refi demand remains the primary engine of growth, with larger-balance borrowers especially responsive to rate drops. It bears repeating that things look different in context.  Specifically, while refi demand looks great compared to the past 2 years, we're just now getting up to levels that were considered "very slow" historically. “Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate down to 6.30 percent, its lowest level since September 2024. This recent decline in rates spurred the second consecutive week of increased refinance activity, driven mainly by conventional refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The ARM share of applications, which had been trending higher, dipped below 10 percent last week, as lower rates prompted more borrowers to choose fixed-rate loans. Additionally, the average loan size of a refinance application remained elevated at $393,900, as borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be sensitive to rate movements. Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week across most loan types. However, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent, impacted by the ongoing government shutdown.”

October 31, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.05%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.81% -0.04%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.30% +0.00%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 31, 2025 Mortgage Rates Recover Some of This Week's Lost Ground Fri, Oct 31, 2025 3:43PM After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday's rates are still the 2nd highest of the past 2 weeks and still meaningfully higher than last Friday's (6.28% vs 6.19% in terms of MND's rate index). The improvement makes it clear that lenders were setting rates defensively on Thursday. We know this because the level of improvement in rates is greater than that suggested by the underlying bond market. In other words, Thursday's rates had a bit of a cushion and lenders removed that cushion on Friday. A... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.81% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.01% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.30% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.89% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.03% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/31 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/30 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.07 0.58 15 Yr. Fixed 5.67% -0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.38% -0.01 0.34 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/29 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.57 +0.01   95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.05 -0.01   97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.093 -0.002   3.932 4.780 Some Early Month-End Buying Fri, Oct 31, 2025 10:29AM With the shutdown ongoing, and the big ticket econ data vanished into the void, there's little for the bond market to do apart from get its books in order for month-end.  If you're curious about some of the month-end trading considerations that can impact bonds, we have a primer. Month-end can involve either buying or selling (or both).  Timing can... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.47 -0.04 UMBS 5.0 99.57 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.05 -0.01 GNMA 4.5 97.78 +0.18 GNMA 5.0 99.71 +0.03 GNMA 5.5 100.88 +0.04 Pricing as of: 10/31 4:11PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.600 -0.007 5 YR Treasury 3.710 -0.008 7 YR Treasury 3.891 -0.008 10 YR Treasury 4.093 -0.002 30 YR Treasury 4.665 +0.008 Pricing as of: 10/31 4:11PM EST Other News Mortgage Applications Responded to Lower Rates, But Things Are Already Changing Fri, Oct 31, 2025 1:53PM Mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, driven by lower rates and a rebound in refinance activity. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, total volume rose 7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 9% from the previous week and is now 111% higher than the same week one... 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