Mortgage Rates HIGHER (Not Lower) After Fed Rate Cut

Several things happen on Fed Day--especially on the 4 out of 8 examples with updated rate forecasts from Fed members.  The official announcement of a rate cut is typically the least important aspect.  In fact, it is usually entirely unimportant in terms of its impact on mortgage rates. Instead, the bonds that determine mortgage rates are much more likely to react to the Fed's dot plot (the chart showing each Fed member's rate forecast over the next few years) and the press conference with the Fed Chair. The dots are released at 2pm at the same time as the rate cut announcement.  The press conference follows at 2:30pm and usually lasts 50 minutes. This staggered timing makes for plenty of back and forth volatility on occasion and today was a prime example.  The dots helped bonds because they signaled better odds for two additional cuts in 2025 as opposed to only one.  The market was mostly expecting that, but it wasn't fully priced-in to prevailing rates.  Things changed during Powell's press conference and bonds ended up more than reversing the initial move. Powell framed today's cut as a "risk management" cut and emphasized that the forecasts in the dot plot do not represent a plan for future cuts. Rather, the Fed will continue to take things on a meeting by meeting basis and make decisions based on the new data that becomes available over that time. As the underlying bond market responded, most mortgage lenders issued mid-day changes to the rates announced this morning. The net effect is that mortgage rates are most certainly HIGHER this afternoon compared to yesterday's latest levels, not to mention this morning's. 

September 17, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 17, 2025 Mortgage Rates HIGHER (Not Lower) After Fed Rate Cut Wed, Sep 17, 2025 3:53PM Several things happen on Fed Day--especially on the 4 out of 8 examples with updated rate forecasts from Fed members.  The official announcement of a rate cut is typically the least important aspect.  In fact, it is usually entirely unimportant in terms of its impact on mortgage rates. Instead, the bonds that determine mortgage rates are much more likely to react to the Fed's dot plot (the chart showing each Fed member's rate forecast over the next few years) and the press conference with the Fed Chair. The dots are released at 2pm at the same time as the rate cut announcement.&nbs... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.80 -0.16   95.05 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.19 -0.05   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.063 +0.032   3.643 4.780 Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement Wed, Sep 17, 2025 2:00PM Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevate... (read more) What to Expect From The Fed Today Wed, Sep 17, 2025 10:51AM The Fed rate announcement is at 2pm ET. A single 25bp rate cut is fully priced in to the bond market and that cut will not be responsible for any volatility you see at 2pm.  A 50bp cut is something that some people have mentioned, but not something that is worth realistically considering. 2pm volatility will primarily be a factor of the dot plot (Fed me... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.80 -0.23 UMBS 5.0 99.80 -0.16 UMBS 5.5 101.19 -0.05 GNMA 4.5 98.11 -0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.06 -0.15 GNMA 5.5 101.14 -0.06 Pricing as of: 9/17 4:36PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.539 +0.035 5 YR Treasury 3.632 +0.046 7 YR Treasury 3.815 +0.044 10 YR Treasury 4.063 +0.032 30 YR Treasury 4.664 +0.013 Pricing as of: 9/17 4:36PM EST Other News TBA, DPA Tools; HELOC, 2nd, Jumbo, Non-QM News; Union Home/Sierra Pacific Deal Wed, Sep 17, 2025 11:41AM Today I find myself in Vancouver, WA, splendid in the autumn, to meet with various mortgage folks and especially the Banner Bank mortgage crew, covering much of the West. Artificial intelligence is on most agendas these days, and I received this note. “I read in your Commentary that AI use in large companies is decreasing. AI is like a GPS. I used to know ho... (read more) Latest Video Fed Chair Powell: High rates have burdened the housing industry Fed shows doubt about multiple rate cuts to end the year Fed Chair Powell on effects of AI in the labor market Fmr. Dallas Fed Pres. Kaplan: Expect a wide divergence in the Fed's summary... Around the Web Eye on Housing The Fed Cuts and Projects More Easing to Come CNBC Fed approves quarter-point interest rate cut and sees two more coming this year CNBC Mortgage refinance demand spikes nearly 60%, as interest rates drop sharply Reuters US single-family housing starts, building permits drop in August Calculated Risk Blog "A Dirty Little Secret" Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month High Eye on Housing Shelter Inflation Continued to Cool CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors await the Feds interest rate decision CNBC Treasury yields trade cautiously ahead of Federal Reserve's rate call this week Seeking Alpha U.S. retail sales strengthen more than consensus in August Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August Eye on Housing Builders Stay Cautious as Single-Family Permits Extend Downtrend Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in August

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