Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP? One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the payroll count can go BIG in either direction, regardless of what the other data or labor market trends have been suggesting. Today's data suggested a predictable level of labor market weakness. This isn't something that would guarantee a bond rally, but that's nonetheless what happened. Rather than think of this as a "lead-off" or bonds getting in position for a weaker NFP, it's more accurate to treat such moves as a simple circling of the wagons as traders exit previously held positions to get neutral ahead of a high risk event. The movement in the yield curve is a solid clue here as it had steepened to what are essentially the highest levels since early 2022 by Wednesday morning and has been correcting ever since (correcting = 10s and 30s doing better than 2s and 3s). All of this is much ado about nothing. The point is as boring as it is true: bonds can rally or sell on Friday at a pace that's only really limited by the size of the beat/miss in the data. Econ Data / EventsADP Jobs 54k vs 65k f'cast, 104k prev Jobless Claims237k vs 230k f'cast, 229k prev Continued Claims1940k vs 1960k f'cast, 1944k prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Aug)52.0 vs 51 f'cast, 50.1 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Aug)52.0 vs 51 f'cast, 50.1 prev ISM Services Employment (Aug)46.5 vs -- f'cast, 46.4 prev ISM Services Employment (Aug)46.5 vs -- f'cast, 46.4 prev ISM Services New Orders (Aug)56.0 vs -- f'cast, 50.3 prev ISM Services New Orders (Aug)56.0 vs -- f'cast, 50.3 prev ISM Services Prices (Aug)69.2 vs -- f'cast, 69.9 prev ISM Services Prices (Aug)69.2 vs -- f'cast, 69.9 prev Market Movement Recap08:15 AM Limited reaction to ADP data, but no bad reaction. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.183 10:02 AM Off best levels after ISM data. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.193 11:50 AM Sideways drift continues. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.19 03:04 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.171
MBS Commentary | | Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP? One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the payroll count can go BIG in either direction, regardless of what the other data or labor market trends ... (read more) |
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Mortgage Rate Watch | | The jobs report is the most important scheduled event each month as far as interest rates are concerned. The last installment helped get the average 30yr fixed rate down from 6.75 to 6.50 because it came out much weaker than expected (in addition to ... (read more) |
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Rob Chrisman | | “Apparently you can’t use ‘beef stew’ as a password. It’s not stroganoff.” How’s your privacy? Or another question: Why wouldn’t you tell your recent borrower to freeze their credit after the loan was done? TransUnion has filed data breach disclosure... (read more) |
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