Mortgage Rates Hold Near July Lows Ahead of Jobs Report

Mortgage rates went to bed last night knowing that the bond market would need to improve in the morning in order for prevailing levels to be maintained. In other words, bonds had begun losing ground yesterday, but not enough for mortgage lenders to go to the trouble of re-issuing rates (something they prefer to do as little as possible). Thankfully, this morning's economic data was close enough to expectations that bonds managed to hold onto modest overnight improvement. With that, the average lender was able to set today's rates right in line with yesterday's.  Incidentally, these are the lowest levels since July 3rd, when the last jobs report came out and caused a quick but fairly tame increase. Tomorrow morning brings the next installment of the jobs report.  As far as bonds/rates are concerned, this is the most important scheduled economic data on any given month. The market is positioned as well as it can be for a stronger or weaker outcome. If job growth is stronger, it would likely result in rates moving higher and vice versa.

July 31, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Hold Near July Lows Ahead of Jobs Report Mortgage rates went to bed last night knowing that the bond market would need to improve in the morning in order for prevailing levels to be maintained. In other words, bonds had begun losing ground yesterday, but not enough for mortgage lenders to g... (read more) MBS Commentary No Whammies From PCE While jobless claims and the Employment Cost Index can be market movers, today's biggest ticket in the 8:30am slot was the monthly PCE Price Index for June. Forecasters are generally more accurate when predicting these numbers because previously rele... (read more) Rob Chrisman Processing, HELOC Tools; FEMA and Detention Center Funding; Freddie's Net Worth Hits $65 Billion As hundreds of attendees add Bob Seger, Madonna, Eminem, and Stevie Wonder to their playlists in preparation for the MMLA conference starting this weekend in Michigan, and my son Robbie hunkers down in the rain in Sheboygan, WI., I received this note... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% +0.00% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.33% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.86% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.25% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.34% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/31 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.03% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.72% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.85% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/31 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.84% +0.02 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.14% +0.03 0.69 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.75% -0.06 0.70 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/23 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.38 -0.06 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.38 -0.06 UMBS 6.0 101.34 -0.02 GNMA 5.5 99.69 -0.06 GNMA 6.0 101.29 -0.08 Pricing as of: 7/31 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3755 +0.0005 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.957 +0.014 5 YR Treasury 3.973 +0.011 7 YR Treasury 4.157 +0.007 10 YR Treasury 4.376 +0.001 30 YR Treasury 4.898 -0.005 Pricing as of: 7/31 5:31PM EST Latest Video Inflation higher than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows Fed leaves funds rate unchanged Chicago PMI comes in at 47.1 June pending home sales -2.8% year-over-year Around the Web Marketwatch Inflation posts biggest rise in four months, PCE shows. Tariffs may be filtering into prices. Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Punta Gorda, Florida has passed Austin as the worst performing city Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 218,000 CNBC Apartment rents drop in July as vacancies move to multi-year high Eye on Housing Housing Share of GDP: Second Quarter 2025 CNBC U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump's tariffs hit Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 9.3% below 2022 peak CNBC Treasury yields slide as investors await Fed's preferred inflation gauge Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 0.8% in June; Down 2.8% YoY CNBC Private company hiring bounced back with a 104,000 increase in July, ADP says Calculated Risk Blog MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey CNBC Architecture firms report decline in billings for commercial real estate Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income Increased 0.3% in June; Spending Increased 0.3%

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