Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Lower Despite Bond Market Improvement

Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday, there was an important piece of economic data that suggested lower rates today. The data in question was the new weekly payroll count from ADP. Whereas October's monthly data (which came out last week) suggested 42k new jobs created, yesterday's weekly data showed an 11k DECREASE in the payroll count.  Decreases are uncommon outside recessions and recessions tend to push interest rates lower. The average lender moved down to the lowest levels since October 31st, but just barely. The typical correlation between bonds and mortgages suggested a slightly bigger move.

November 12, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% -0.05%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.04%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% -0.01%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 12, 2025 Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Lower Despite Bond Market Improvement Wed, Nov 12, 2025 3:15PM Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday, there was an important piece of economic data that suggested lower rates today. The data in question was the new weekly payroll count from ADP. Whereas October's monthly data (which came out last week) suggested 42k new jobs created, yesterday's weekly data showed an 11k DECREASE in the payroll count.  Decreases are uncommon outside recessions and recessions tend to push interest rates lower. The average lender moved do... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.01% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.02% -0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/12 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/6 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.07 0.58 15 Yr. Fixed 5.67% -0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.38% -0.01 0.34 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/29 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.53 +0.35   95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.97 +0.22   97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.060 -0.062   3.932 4.780 Stronger Start Thanks to Weekly ADP Data Wed, Nov 12, 2025 10:21AM ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. The public has only had access for a few weeks and traders have wasted no time incorporating it into the inner circle of influential market movers.  Perhaps this dynamic will fade after the government shut... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.58 +0.30 UMBS 5.0 99.53 +0.35 UMBS 5.5 100.97 +0.22 GNMA 4.5 97.69 +0.22 GNMA 5.0 99.83 +0.25 GNMA 5.5 100.85 +0.15 Pricing as of: 11/12 3:41PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.560 -0.035 5 YR Treasury 3.661 -0.058 7 YR Treasury 3.842 -0.067 10 YR Treasury 4.060 -0.062 30 YR Treasury 4.654 -0.058 Pricing as of: 11/12 3:41PM EST Other News Non-QM, Broker, AMC, LO Survey Results; Warehouse Tools; Webinars and Training Wed, Nov 12, 2025 11:53AM Its dog eat dog in the ranks of the FHFA and Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. The question is, does anyone care, or is anyone surprised? We want to follow the law, right? Everyone knows that the Trump Administration fired the Inspector General and Fannie’s ethics staff. Now the Wall Street Journal reports that, “Fannie Mae Watchdogs Probed How Pulte Obtained Mo... (read more) Latest Video U.S. Treasury sells $42B in 10-year notes Fed Governor Stephen Miran: A 50 bps cut is ‘appropriate’ for December, but... Homebuyers drive mortgage demand higher White House: October CPI and jobs report likely to never be released Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025 CNBC Trump proposes 50-year mortgage, but some say homeowner savings would be minimal Reuters US lost jobs through late October, new private-sector data shows CNBC Atlanta Fed President Bostic says he'll leave position when his term expires CNBC Mortgage demand from homebuyers hits highest level since September, despite rising interest rates CNBC House to vote on bill to end shutdown around 7 p.m. ET Wednesday, Rep. Scalise says Eye on Housing Employment Loss and Post-COVID Recovery Across U.S. Metro Areas CNBC The Trump Administration wants to allow crypto-backed mortgages. Here's why CNBC Treasury yields move lower as end of the government shutdown nears CNBC Government shutdown: House will vote on Senate deal ASAP, Speaker Johnson says Calculated Risk Blog November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year Pepperstone Light At The End Of The Government Shutdown Tunnel Eye on Housing Remodelers on the Rise: How Renovation is Reshaping Residential Construction

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