Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower, But Volatility Risks Remain

There was a decent chance that rates would have made a fairly big move today in response to the release of November's jobs report. This is the most important economic data as far as rates are concerned and today's was the first full release since before the government shutdown. In general, weaker employment data promotes lower rates and vice versa. While today's jobs report was weaker on balance, it wasn't weak enough to unequivocally shift the narrative of a labor market that is merely cooling in a gradual and manageable way. The average lender moved back down to levels that were close to those seen last Thursday. In the bigger picture, rates are in a consolidation pattern inside the same relatively narrow range seen since early September. Volatility remains a risk as the week progresses. If there's one additional report the market may be waiting to see before trading today's jobs report more aggressively, it's this Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the heaviest hitting monthly inflation report and inflation is the other half of the Fed's rate-setting equation.

December 16, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.27% -0.02%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% -0.01%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.41% -0.01%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 16, 2025 Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower, But Volatility Risks Remain Tue, Dec 16, 2025 2:08PM There was a decent chance that rates would have made a fairly big move today in response to the release of November's jobs report. This is the most important economic data as far as rates are concerned and today's was the first full release since before the government shutdown. In general, weaker employment data promotes lower rates and vice versa. While today's jobs report was weaker on balance, it wasn't weak enough to unequivocally shift the narrative of a labor market that is merely cooling in a gradual and manageable way. The average lender moved back down to levels that were close to t... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.27% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.88% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.41% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.99% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.90% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 12/16 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.54% +0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.33% +0.01 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.02 0.64 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.46% +0.06 0.35 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.48 +0.12   95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.14 +0.09   97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.156 -0.021   3.932 4.780 Frustratingly Flat After Deceptively Friendly Jobs Report Tue, Dec 16, 2025 9:05AM If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This is mitigated somewhat by the uptick in participation rate (0.1%) and the slightly higher payroll count (64k vs 50k f'cast). In addition, BLS noted lower response ra... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.35 +0.14 UMBS 5.0 99.48 +0.12 UMBS 5.5 101.14 +0.09 GNMA 4.5 97.23 -0.02 GNMA 5.0 99.53 +0.03 GNMA 5.5 100.85 -0.02 Pricing as of: 12/16 2:31PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.479 -0.028 5 YR Treasury 3.698 -0.029 7 YR Treasury 3.908 -0.025 10 YR Treasury 4.156 -0.021 30 YR Treasury 4.831 -0.013 Pricing as of: 12/16 2:31PM EST Other News Cap Markets Education, Servicing, Borrower Monitoring Products; Marketing Thoughts for 2026 Tue, Dec 16, 2025 11:41AM Running a mortgage company, turns out, isn’t free, and lenders are trying to cut costs and increase efficiency everywhere. For example (and this is not a paid ad), Lenders One offers some member benefits that may be of interest: L1 Credit for credit reports and fraud tools, L1 Flood for NFIP compliance, and L1 Insurance to help borrowers get competitive home... (read more) Latest Video November jobs report doesn't change much for the Fed, says Fed's Dennis Loc... November non farm payrolls comes in at 64,000 S&P global U.S. services PMI comes in at 52.9 vs. 54.0 estimated September business inventories: +0.2% vs. +0.1% estimate Around the Web CNBC Fed chief candidate Hassett says central bank's independence is 'really important,' would move rates by consensus Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 CNBC Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November after falling by 105,000 in October, delayed jobs numbers show MBA November New Home Purchase Mortgage Applications Increased 3.1% ADP Research ADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 FXStreet US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declines to 51.8, Services PMI falls to 52.9 in December Breaking The News US retail sales unchanged in October Calculated Risk Blog Comments on November Employment Report CNBC High cost of goods is causing consumers to spend less for the holidays, CNBC survey finds Investing Live NY Fed manufacturing index for December -3.9 versus 10.0 estimate. CNBC Treasury yields fall as markets await key jobs report Eye on Housing Builder Sentiment Inches Higher but Ends the Year in Negative Territory

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