Mortgage Rates Technically Lower, But Effectively Flat

If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn't been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today's only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the market is largely flying blind until it is eventually released. This doesn't mean rates can't move between now and then--only that the overall capacity for volatility is lower until the data returns (likely when gov funding resumes). There are non-government reports that matter as well and tomorrow morning brings this week's best example with ISM's Services index.

October 2, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.36% -0.01%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.87% -0.01%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.26% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 2, 2025 Mortgage Rates Technically Lower, But Effectively Flat Thu, Oct 2, 2025 3:16PM If we're splitting hairs, today's mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday's, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn't been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today's only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the m... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.36% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.87% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.05% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.26% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.79% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.07% +0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/2 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.55% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/2 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% -0.05 0.57 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% +0.07 0.69 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.04 0.34 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/24 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.56 +0.07   95.05 99.96 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.06 +0.04   97.47 101.28 10 YR Treasury 4.085 -0.014   3.788 4.780 Data-Free, Thanks to Shutdown Thu, Oct 2, 2025 9:45AM As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Orders, but we don't care about that report anyway), and thus a random walk for trading momentum, absent any unexpected headline shock. Friday still has ISM Services data, and thus some old fashioned "cause and ef... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.54 +0.13 UMBS 5.0 99.56 +0.07 UMBS 5.5 101.06 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.46 +0.14 GNMA 5.0 99.74 -0.01 GNMA 5.5 100.82 -0.02 Pricing as of: 10/2 3:41PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.544 +0.015 5 YR Treasury 3.671 +0.001 7 YR Treasury 3.861 -0.005 10 YR Treasury 4.085 -0.014 30 YR Treasury 4.692 -0.016 Pricing as of: 10/2 3:41PM EST Other News Commercial, Borrower Mining, LOS Tools; FICO's Direct License Program; Lisa Cook on Hold Until January Thu, Oct 2, 2025 11:47AM We’re two days into the 4th quarter of the 2025, two days into another government shutdown, and… companies are relishing their September numbers. I have been hearing from a few companies that had strong performance in September. For example, Union Home Mortgage has been in the news lately, and the company had a record lock month with over 5,000 units and $1.... (read more) Latest Video FICO to license scores directly to lenders skipping credit bureaus How the U.S. government shutdown may impact mortgage rates How the U.S. government shutdown impacts economic data S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI comes in as expected Around the Web CNBC Report shows hiring at lowest since 2009 as economists turn to alternative data during shutdown blackout Eye on Housing Square Foot Prices Moderate in 2024 Eye on Housing 17% of NAHB Builders Built Age-Restricted Housing in 2024 CNBC FICO provider is shaking up its credit score business. Its stock is surging CNBC Treasury yields edge lower as investors face economic data blackout CNBC Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout CNBC Government shutdown means opportune timing for Neptune Flood IPO CNBC Mortgage refinance demand plunges 21%, as interest rates hit 3-week high Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year Eye on Housing Consumer Confidence Drops on Job Concerns PR Newswire Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1%; September 2025 Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 10% below 2022 peak Calculated Risk Blog ISM Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September

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