Mortgage News Daily - September 12, 2025

Mortgage Rates Tick Slightly Higher But Maintain This Week's Range

The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered...

The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight.  Weaker bonds equate to higher rates, all else equal.   The move in bonds wasn't driven by anything specific  and shifts of this size don't demand concrete justification in underlying data or events. It could simply be the case that traders were closing out trading positions for the week and the modest uptick in yields/rates was the incidental result.  Mortgage-specific bonds were even less volatile today, resulting in a mere 0.02% increase in the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate. That brings our index back up to 6.29%, which is in line with this week's other highs and still part of a very narrow range that represents the lowest general levels since October 2024. Next week brings a much-anticipated Fed announcement. The Fed is virtually 100% likely to cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%. This near-certainty is already baked into today's mortgage rates and the Fed rate cut will have zero impact on mortgage rates in and of itself. Rather, other data release in conjunction with the rate cut could still cause volatility.  The Fed's "dot plot" (a summary of each Fed member's view of the appropriate Fed Funds Rate at various future dates) is of primary importance. The dots help markets gauge the potential path of additional rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. It is a vital tool in calibrating the evolution of the Fed's rate-friendliness as a function of recent economic data. In simpler terms, it will show us how much more willing the Fed is to cut rates in light of recently downbeat labor market data and still-elevated inflation.