Rates End Week at Best Levels; Next Week Could be Huge

Calm Day to End A Calm Week While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market, it was nonetheless just as calm as any other day this week in terms of volatility. That's a bit more impressive considering it was the only day with big-ticket econ data. Overall, the week was marked by slow, steady gains for no particular reason. With that, the entirety of August, post-jobs-report did exactly what it was supposed to do. Specifically, it held a narrow enough range to avoid challenging the range set by the last jobs report day. The upcoming week--while shorter than normal due to the Labor Day holiday--is infinitely more capable of producing bond market volatility. Even the supporting actors are arguably heavy hitters in terms of econ data. Friday's jobs report speaks for itself. Bottom line: additional labor market weakness could easily help bonds break new ground at lower yields while unexpected resilience could firmly reinforce recent floors. Econ Data / EventsCore PCE (m/m) (Jul)0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (Jul)2.9% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.8% prev Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (Jul)0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.3% prev Personal Income (Jul)0.4% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0.3% prev Wholesale inventories mm (Jul)0.2% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.1% prev Chicago PMI (Aug)41.5 vs 46 f'cast, 47.1 prev Consumer Sentiment (Aug)58.2 vs 58.6 f'cast, 61.7 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Aug)4.8% vs 4.9% f'cast, 4.5% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Aug)3.5% vs 3.9% f'cast, 3.4% prev Market Movement Recap08:34 AM Minimal movement after PCE data.  MBS are down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr yields are up 1.4bps at 4.22. 01:03 PM Slightly stronger heading into PM.  MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.224

August 29, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Calm Day to End A Calm Week Calm Day to End A Calm Week While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market, it was nonetheless just as calm as any other day this week in terms of volatility. That's a bit mo... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Rates End Week at Best Levels; Next Week Could be Huge It was a very slow and steady week for mortgage rates. On all 5 days, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate moved by 0.02% or less.  This is a small enough change that the average borrower wouldn't see any detectable difference in a loan quote fr... (read more) Rob Chrisman Loan Calculator and Verification Tools; Event Calendar; Insurance Costs; Mortgage Banking Bound Interview “The hardness of the butter is proportional to the softness of the bread.” Proportionality is important, whether in a restaurant or in a lender watching adjustable-rate loans (where the market favors credit unions and banks). With short-term rates dr... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.50% +0.00% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.06% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.45% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.90% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.08% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/29 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.86% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.56% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% 0.00 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/28 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% +0.01 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% +0.07 0.77 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.67% +0.03 0.44 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/27 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.55 -0.04 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.55 -0.04 UMBS 6.0 102.15 -0.01 GNMA 5.5 100.72 -0.03 GNMA 6.0 101.99 +0.02 Pricing as of: 8/29 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2294 +0.0241 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.619 -0.010 5 YR Treasury 3.696 +0.008 7 YR Treasury 3.929 +0.011 10 YR Treasury 4.229 +0.024 30 YR Treasury 4.926 +0.051 Pricing as of: 8/29 5:31PM EST Latest Video Yield curve steepens after economic data Consumer sentiment revised to 58.2 vs. 58.6 estimated July pending home sales -0.4% monthly vs. +0.3% estimated The E.U. is set to remove tariffs on U.S. industrial goods Around the Web CNBC Condo prices are fallingbut a bargain isnt guaranteed: Its all in the math CNBC Core inflation rate rose to 2.9% in July, as expected, key Fed measure shows Marketwatch What economists are watching for in tomorrow's PCE inflation and spending data CNBC Pending home sales tick lower in July as canceled contracts spike Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 4.0% YoY in July Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.1% Year-over-year CNBC Fed's Waller, a candidate for chair, sees potential for half-point cut if labor market weakens further Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 9.8% below 2022 peak Market Watch U.S. trade deficit in goods widened sharply in July as firms raced to avoid tariffs Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income Increased 0.4% in July; Spending Increased 0.5% Eye on Housing Multifamily Absorption Rises in the Second Quarter CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors await key inflation measure

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