Yet Again, Mortgage Rates Surge Higher After Fed Rate Cut

Today was not a foregone conclusion and there was no way to know ahead of time that it would end like this, but the outcome is exactly why we've gone to such lengths to warn you about the potentially paradoxical reaction to a Fed rate cut.  Too many people repeat the fallacy that mortgage rates will benefit from a Fed cut.  We have several recent examples of the exact opposite happening, and now today adds another strong reminder with the average lender moving higher at the fastest pace since the day after the last Fed meeting. Why does this happen?  It has nothing to do with the rate cut itself.  As we warned, volatility would come from Fed Chair Powell's press conference. In today's case, Powell said that another rate cut in December was not a foregone conclusion.  This was at odds with the market's expectations, so there was a rush to reprice those expectations.   As always, today's rates instantly adjust to expectations for rates in the future (the main reason that Fed rate cuts do little-to-nothing to impact market rates).   In relative terms, rates are still lower than most of the past year, but back up to similar levels seen on October 14/15th. 

October 29, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.14%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.82% +0.10%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.20% +0.05%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 29, 2025 Yet Again, Mortgage Rates Surge Higher After Fed Rate Cut Wed, Oct 29, 2025 4:02PM Today was not a foregone conclusion and there was no way to know ahead of time that it would end like this, but the outcome is exactly why we've gone to such lengths to warn you about the potentially paradoxical reaction to a Fed rate cut.  Too many people repeat the fallacy that mortgage rates will benefit from a Fed cut.  We have several recent examples of the exact opposite happening, and now today adds another strong reminder with the average lender moving higher at the fastest pace since the day after the last Fed meeting. Why does this happen?  It has nothing to do with... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.27% +0.14 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.82% +0.10 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% +0.11 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.20% +0.05 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.90% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.02% +0.12 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/29 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.19% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.44% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/23 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.37% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.74% -0.03 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.39% -0.08 0.37 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/22 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.75 -0.36   95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.20 -0.21   97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.057 +0.081   3.932 4.780 Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement Wed, Oct 29, 2025 2:01PM Recent Available indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year has been expanding at a moderate pace . Job gains have slowed this year , and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments . Inflation has moved up... (read more) What Matters in Today's Fed Announcement Wed, Oct 29, 2025 11:50AM Bonds are a hair weaker this morning with losses showing up in the overnight session and mostly flattening out in domestic trading.  Without any big ticket data this morning, this aimless drift is standard operating procedure--especially considering the pre-Fed consolidation was largely assumed to be seen via the modest weakness at the end of last week.... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.75 -0.50 UMBS 5.0 99.75 -0.36 UMBS 5.5 101.20 -0.21 GNMA 4.5 97.87 -0.42 GNMA 5.0 99.81 -0.25 GNMA 5.5 100.94 -0.09 Pricing as of: 10/29 4:26PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.591 +0.101 5 YR Treasury 3.699 +0.091 7 YR Treasury 3.868 +0.095 10 YR Treasury 4.057 +0.081 30 YR Treasury 4.600 +0.055 Pricing as of: 10/29 4:26PM EST Other News Hedging, HELOC, Servicing Oversight, AI Assisted Branding; Fannie's 31st Consecutive Quarterly Profit Wed, Oct 29, 2025 11:46AM "The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would tax Botox. When Botox users heard this, they were horrified. Well, I think they were horrified. It's difficult to tell." Is anyone motivated to end the government shutdown? I mean, really motivated? One side sticking to their guns about healthcare, the other side is fine with slowing down the economy to move ... (read more) Latest Video The labor market broadly can be categorized as 'low hire, low fire', says B... Private sector created nearly 15,000 jobs a week over the past month, preli... October consumer confidence comes in at 94.6 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Production Index remains unchanged in October Around the Web CNBC Fed cuts rates for the second time this year, will end balance sheet run-off in December Eye on Housing The Fed Cuts amid Partly Cloudy Conditions CNBC Mortgage rates drop to the lowest level in over a year, pushing refinancing 111% higher annually Calculated Risk Blog Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September CNBC Home prices lag inflation, meaning homeowners are losing out on their investment CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors await Fed's rate decision Calculated Risk Blog A few Comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in September; Down 0.9% YoY CNBC Private sector created nearly 15,000 jobs a week over the past month, preliminary ADP data shows Calculated Risk Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August CNBC Treasury yields inch lower as investors await Fed interest rate decision PR Newswire US Consumer Confidence Virtually Unchanged in October CNBC How tariffs may skew retail sales results this earnings season

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