Apple Watch data from over 61,000 adults shows that most Americans aren’t getting enough sleep, with the average sleep duration at 6 hours and 40 minutes. However, the climate you live in can be a big influence on how much you sleep: residents in colder states tend to sleep more, whereas residents in warmer states sleep less (with a few interesting exceptions). The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.8% while the Russell 2000 dipped 0.1% on Wednesday. The S&P 500’s finish in the green was attributable to just two companies: Alphabet and Apple, which put the stock market on their broad, multitrillion-dollar shoulders. |
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- Semiconductors are in a precarious position, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF not too far away from completing a bearish head-and-shoulders top pattern.
- Zooming in on the most important semiconductor stock, Nvidia, the heart, soul, and many other body parts of the AI trade, closed below its 50-day moving average on Tuesday for the first time since May, when it was repairing damage done in the wake of the momentum meltdown and tariff angst that roiled markets.
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So that’s the shakiness. But… there is hope. Software has been something of a laggard in the world of tech over the last year, as investor dollars flocked to the sexiest — and most high-performing — hyperscalers, power providers, and electrical equipment makers poised to profit from the AI data center boom, but a change may be afoot. Several, let’s just say it, incredibly boring business-to-business data management software companies like Datadog, Snowflake, Autodesk, and Pure Storage have had a bit of a run lately, partly driven by surprisingly strong earnings results. |
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Until recently, the rap on software was, essentially, that AI stood to potentially disrupt and undercut the immensely profitable “software as a service” (SaaS) industry. As a Goldman Sachs analyst wrote in a recent note titled, “Updated thoughts on the ‘Death of Software,’” the reality seems to be that large software companies are rapidly embracing AI technology themselves, adopting a hybrid strategy. Given recent fireworks following software companies’ earnings reports, it could be a profitable area for investors to watch. |
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On the first trading day of September, the market gave to me… a dip in my portfolio tree. It’s a curious phenomenon: over the past 45 years, September has been the only month when the S&P 500 Index has averaged a loss, as you can see in this chart. While it’s one thing to know September is weak on average, it’s another to see how often the month really goes south. Why September trends this way is puzzling. Intuitively, it shouldn’t matter what month it is — but the phenomenon has held going back to the 1930s. Some theories why include: |
- Seasonal moves that add to selling pressure. Fund managers, for instance, sometimes clean up their portfolios before fiscal year-end in September and October, while some investors start early on selling losers to shrink their tax bill.
- “Post-holiday blues”: as trading slows during summer breaks, bad news isn’t fully priced in, and markets adjust lower once investors get back to business.
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Other ideas include diminishing daylight making markets droop, IPO seasonality, and pop psychology making investors turn fears into reality. Basically, if traders are expecting a bad month, they’re more likely to flee their positions at the first sign of bad news. Markets see a similar pressure in May as some traders take to heart the adage, “Sell in May and go away.” |
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The second trading day of September saw the S&P 500 close a bit up, so it’s far too early to say whether this is another case of the curse, but the reality is that seasonal influences are only ever going to be very marginal. If the economy roars, inflation cools, AI makes a breakthrough, and geopolitical tensions abate, expect stocks to soar no matter what the calendar says. |
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