Robinhood - September 12, 2025

K-shaped recovery?

Yesterday, language-learning app Duolingo rose by the most in...

Luis von Ahn, CEO of Duolingo (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Presented by

Hey Snackers,

It’s been quite a week for the Ellison family! Oracle’s massive rally on Wednesday made cofounder Larry Ellison’s fortune rise by $89 billion to $383 billion, the biggest single-day gain ever. Then yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported the Ellison family is backing a bid by the newly merged Paramount Skydance (which Larry's son David Ellison heads) to buy all of Warner Bros. Discovery. If the deal goes through, it would bring together HBO, CNN, DC Studios, and Warner Bros.’ film library with Paramount+, Nickelodeon, and MTV, all under one very big umbrella.

Disappointing US economic data didn’t stop the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 from posting record closing highs again yesterday. A jump in initial jobless claims and slightly firmer-than-expected inflation were easy hurdles for bulls, who sent the overwhelming majority of the S&P 500 upward on Thursday.

🧑‍💻💡 Quiz time: Test your knowledge of tattoos, tech titans, and more:

Britain is on track to lose one ______________ per day this year.
Check your answer.

ROUND DUO

Duolingo pops on note that signals turnaround may now be here

Yesterday, language-learning app Duolingo rose by the most in nearly a month after analysts painted a more bullish picture of the company despite a dearth of news otherwise.

A quick check-in with analysts covering the stock on Wall Street found most of them flummoxed as to the reason behind the uptick Thursday.

Some suggested the rise may reflect optimism that the company has been able to reverse a monthslong downturn in daily active user metrics — a slump that set in after social media backlash to a somewhat artless LinkedIn post from the company’s CEO about its AI-first strategy.
A bullish analyst note, published by Citizens JMP, proposed that Duolingo could also be a big beneficiary from a change to Apple’s rules governing its App Store driven by a ruling on a federal antitrust case against the company.
At any rate, the next big event on Duolingo’s calendar is its Duocon 2025 conference on Tuesday, where analysts are hoping to hear more hard information on all of the above topics.

After stepping in it with the AI talk, Duolingo has at least been able to achieve a reset around the conversation about the polyglot app.

THE TAKEAWAY

Duolingo’s not the only potential winner here, for what it’s worth.

Analysts said that given “Apple’s recent changes to U.S. App Store rules that allow developers to steer payments to the web where fees are similar to typical credit card fees rather than Apple’s 30% fee for in-app purchases and 30% fee on subscriptions for the first year and 15% thereafter, we expect mobile app companies including Duolingo, Life360, and Grindr Inc. to unlock meaningful cost benefits.”

Read more

Presented by Pacaso

It may not be trading on the Nasdaq, but you can still buy this unlisted stock

Over 10,000 people have already invested in Pacaso. The same firm that has backed large-cap S&P 500 companies has invested too. And now, everyday investors like you have a chance to invest before the opportunity ends on Sept. 18.

Created by a former Zillow exec who sold his first venture for $120M, Pacaso brings co-ownership to the $1.3T vacation home industry.¹

They’ve generated $1B+ worth of gross real estate transactions and service fees since inception across 2,000+ owners. That’s good for more than $100M in gross profit since 2021.² They’ve even reserved their Nasdaq ticker, $PCSO.³

But time’s running out and the investment opportunity closes next Thursday.

Become a Pacaso shareholder before this offering ends.⁴

DATA DUMPED

The S&P 500 will need a lot more than a rough jobs report to blink

A much weaker-than-expected piece of labor market data, coupled with a mildly hotter-than-anticipated inflation report, took some wind out of the sails of US stocks yesterday morning — but not for long.

The data itself? Not great:

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly popped to 263,000 for the week ended September 6, a near four-year high, while economists had anticipated a moderation to 235,000.
It’s another piece of poor labor market data that comes on the heels of the most negative annual revision to US nonfarm payrolls since 2009 and a soft August jobs report.
An outsized jump in initial claims from Texas seemingly fueled this weekly increase.
Separately, the August inflation report showed that headline consumer prices were up 2.9% year on year, with both headline and core CPI up slightly more than expected, month on month.

The pricing of Federal Reserve interest rate policy over the next 15 months, when compared to what inflation swaps and the stock market were trading, suggested that traders did not think more easing from the central bank would be a catalyst for an ongoing inflation problem, nor that the magnitude of cuts was symptomatic of underlying economic ills.

THE TAKEAWAY

Sure, the knee-jerk reaction to the report was a dip, but trading recovered instantly and the day itself proceeded generally unremarkably into the afternoon. For a market with weaker sentiment powering its sails — potentially not one currently in the thrall of the resurrected confidence fairy — this could have been a bad report. That’s certainly not where things are at today.

Read more

THE BEST THING WE READ TODAY

The K-shaped economy, in one chart

The idea of a “K-shaped recovery” — relatively affluent Americans doing well, while those lower on the income spectrum struggle mightily — was in vogue as the US economy emerged from its Covid-induced recession in 2020. A few years of better wage growth for lower earners helped put a dent in this trend, but now the “K-shaped economy” is back in a big way.

See the chart.

Presented by Pacaso

Put this stock ticker on your watchlist

They’re a private company, but Pacaso just reserved the Nasdaq ticker “$PCSO.”³ Pacaso brings co-ownership to the $1.3T vacation home industry.¹

They’ve already made more than $110M in gross profits to date.² No surprise the same firms that backed large-cap S&P 500 companies already invested in Pacaso. Join them before Pacaso’s investment opportunity ends on September 18.⁴

MOVES

Yesterday’s Big Daily Movers

Tempus AI jumped following FDA clearance of an AI-enabled tool to analyze cardiac MRIs
Centene soared after affirming its full-year guidance ahead of the Deutsche Bank 2025 Healthcare Summit yesterday
Stellantis revved up after its CEO said the Netherlands-based automaker is in productive tariff talks with the US
Micron surged after Citi boosted its price target to $175 from $150

What else we're Snackin'

The DOJ is suing Uber, alleging the company discriminates against passengers with disabilities
Meanwhile, Bank of America doesn’t expect Tesla’s ride-share service to hurt Uber or Lyft this year
The Miami Dolphins’ $212 million bet on their quarterback may turn out to be a franchise-crippling mistake
A new study found that exercising just one time pumped out substances that can suppress the growth or return of cancer
In the spirit of the legendary red paperclip saga, one young man tried to flip free stuff on Facebook Marketplace into a $1,000 profit

Follow big-name investors to Pacaso by 9/18: They already backed large-cap S&P 500 companies. Now they’re backing Pacaso. 10,000+ regular investors have also backed Pacaso. You can too — invest before the opportunity ends.⁴

Snack Fact of the Day

Oracle’s rally briefly made Larry Ellison the world’s richest person.

Friday

September preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Advertiser's disclosures:

¹ Pacaso estimates the U.S. market at $1.3 trillion and the European market as $500 billion. See website for further details.

² Pacaso was founded in 2020. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For more details on the gross profit for 2021-2023, please see management discussion of the financial condition section of the offering circular (p.41). For more details on the 2024 gross profit, please see the 1-K Financial Statements section (p.12).

³ Pacaso recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($PCSO). Reserving the ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the Nasdaq is subject to approvals.

⁴ The minimum investment is $1,035.52 when including the 3.5% investor fee. This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.pacaso.com.

Investing in private company securities is not suitable for all investors because it is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. It should only be considered a long-term investment. You must be prepared to withstand a total loss of your investment. Private company securities are also highly illiquid, and there is no guarantee that a market will develop for such securities.

Was this email forwarded to you? Don’t miss out on future stories — subscribe to Snacks and get your daily dose of financial news straight to your inbox.

Craving more insights in your inbox? Subscribe to Chartr and The Wrap for quality reads.

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate... See more

SHERWOOD MEDIA, LLC, 85 Willow Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025