Robinhood - January 5, 2026

🚘 Tesla surrenders the 👑

Tesla is starting off the year on the back foot, notching its...

Hey Snackers,

New year, same old silliness? At least that’s what the first few days of 2026 looked like for crypto, with meme coins symbolized by dogs and frogs leading the blockchain-based bunch of assets. Hopping to the top was a token with a strange history, followed by shibu inu and dogecoin.

After a bit of whipsawing, the S&P 500 broke its four-day losing streak on Friday. The Nasdaq 100, however, posted a loss, while the Russell 2000 outperformed.

The AI trade was back on as traders dove headlong into a “new year, same AI-fueled rally” thesis. On the other hand, while the AI picks and shovels stocks felt an outpouring of new year love, the same wasn’t true for the companies more downstream in this theme — even most of the hyperscalers. This created a massive, never-before-seen divergence between the two big parts of the technology sector.

OPTIMUS, TAKE THE WHEEL

Tesla’s robotaxi future can’t come soon enough

Tesla is starting off the year on the back foot, notching its seventh consecutive day in the red as of Friday, as the company deals with a string of rough luck and bad news.

The crux of the issue last week was Q4 deliveries, which fell 16% to 418,227 vehicles, falling short of estimates, while its full-year numbers dropped 8.5% to 1,636,129, marking the electric vehicle company’s second annual sales decline in a row.
The worst part is that Tesla is losing ground in a business that is otherwise doing splendidly. Chinese competitor BYD saw its 2025 battery electric vehicle sales increase 28% to 2.3 million, overtaking Tesla for the first time on a calendar year basis.
CEO Elon Musk has been deemphasizing Tesla’s EV business, focusing the future of the company instead on autonomy, AI, and robots.

On the company’s last earnings call, Musk said Tesla is so confident in the future success of its Full Self-Driving technology that it planned to increase vehicle production “as fast as we reasonably can,” potentially reaching a 3 million annualized production rate within two years.

THE TAKEAWAY

It’s a tough time to be in the Tesla business, and backers are mainly buckling in for a bumpy ride that they believe will ultimately end with the automaker successfully diversifying into robotics and autonomous vehicles.

Still, it’s really rocky these days. Just last week it came out that South Korea’s L&F Co., a supplier of battery material for Tesla’s “apocalypse-proof” Cybertruck, has written down the value of its Tesla contract by more than 99%, Bloomberg reported — another sign that Cybertruck sales are faltering. L&F cited changes in supply quantities, slashing a contract valued at nearly $3 billion in 2023 to about $7,000 now. That’s rough!

Read more

ZOOM OUT

Stories we’re obsessed with

Why the 1929 stock market crash still matters: Sherwood News’ Matt Phillips sat down with Andrew Ross Sorkin — CNBC coanchor, New York Times columnist, and arguably the best-known financial journalist of his generation — to talk about his new book, “1929,” and why the new generation of retail traders especially needs to understand the most harrowing days in Wall Street history. Read the full interview.
Bullish on 2026: Sherwood’s Phillips also sat down with Bankim “Binky” Chadha, chief global equity strategist at Deutsche Bank, to talk about his forecast for 2026 and what’s driving him to be the biggest bull on Wall Street for the S&P 500. Go deeper.

THE BEST THING WE READ TODAY

The major trends to keep watching in 2026, charted

We recapped some of the biggest trends of the year — everything from nostalgia-driven consumption to the “everything” market, recession fears, and more — and took a look at where we think they might go in the next 12 months.

See the charts

Snacks Shots

🏛️ Government: New year, new political crisis. On January 31, there’s yet another chance that funding will lapse for the federal government, and right now the market* is pricing in a 29% chance that the votes aren’t there to keep the government operating. That’s not nothing, but is down significantly from the 40% this was priced at in mid-December.
🚀 Launches: SpaceX is aiming to get an IPO off the ground, but its core business is looking solid, with the market pricing in an 80% chance of at least 180 launches this year, a 62% chance of at least 200 launches, and even a 38% chance of over 210 launches. For perspective, the company finished 2025 with 165 orbital flights during the year.

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.

What else we’re Snackin’

What you missed if you completely disconnected from markets for the holidays
Not-so-dumb money: retail traders’ favorite stocks bested the market for the third straight year
Rather than fully cracking down on scam ads, Meta worked to make them harder for investigators to find
What does 2026 hold for bitcoin? Citi analysts see it posting a new all-time high even in their base case
Level up without the overwhelm. Mindstream turns complex AI into clear, human language with checklists, prompts, and patterns you can apply immediately. Learn by doing, stay curious, and build confidence one five-minute read at a time, where it counts most. Subscribe today

Snack Fact of the Day

The creators of “Superman” sold the rights to the character for $130 in 1938.

This Week

Monday: December ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: No major data or earnings expected
Wednesday: December ADP employment change, December ISM Services PMI, November job openings. Earnings expected from Albertsons, Constellation Brands, and Applied Digital
Thursday: Earnings expected from Tilray
Friday: December jobs report

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