How to spot the winners in 2026's IPOs
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This week’s insights include: |
- How 2025 IPOs actually performed: A handful of standout names delivered strong gains, but most failed to live up to the hype, with only a minority trading above their listing price.
- The IPOs to watch in 2026: Big names across AI, aerospace, and software like OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, and Databricks could headline one of the most anticipated IPO cycles in years.
- How IPOs perform over the long run: Most IPOs underperform the market over time, but a small group of winners can deliver outsized returns that drive overall performance.
- Why IPOs have slowed over time: Fewer companies are going public than in past decades, pointing to a deeper shift in how businesses are choosing to scale and access capital.
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This week's Market Insights article is a 5 minute read! |
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IPOs are starting to make a real comeback. The number of companies going public in the U.S. has been climbing steadily each year since 2023. And investors have noticed. Last year, the average first-day return for IPOs came in at 29.3%, well above the long-term average of about 19% from 1980 to 2025. That kind of pop is hard to ignore. So what does this evolving IPO landscape actually mean for investors? Today, we'll look at the IPOs of last year, how they performed and the traits behind the winners, and what this year's list looks like. |
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| "We all want to buy “the next Microsoft”—precisely because we know we missed buying the first Microsoft. But we conveniently overlook the fact that most other IPOs were terrible investments." | |
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Here’s a quick summary of what’s been going on: |
- Private credit stress raises broader financial system concerns.
- Big Tech faces rising scrutiny as social media risks likened to tobacco.
- Trump signals progress on Iran talks as conflict and uncertainty persist.
- Rising productivity may be tied to AI but the impact remains unclear.
- Meta fell 8% on legal setbacks as court rulings add pressure on growth strategy.
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| IPOs in 2025 and expected IPOs in 2026
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Some big names made their market debut in 2025, with companies like Figma, CoreWeave, and Circle among the most anticipated IPOs of the year. A handful have managed to hold onto investor enthusiasm, but many haven’t. The range of outcomes has been wide. Karman Holdings sits at the top, up roughly 364% since its debut. On the other end, Gemini Space Station, a virtual currencies platform, has fallen about 74%. It’s clear that IPO investing is very much a stock-picker’s game. We delve into the full analysis in our article, but here's a sneak peek of the companies set to publicly launch this year. |
- OpenAI: Recent reports suggest that an OpenAI IPO could arrive as soon as Q4 2026. A funding round earlier this year reportedly valued the company at around $840 billion post-money, and some estimates suggest it could approach a $1 trillion valuation by the time it goes public. At that level, it would easily become the largest U.S. tech IPO ever.
- Anthropic: Late last year, the company reportedly hired law firm Wilson Sonsini to begin preparing for an IPO, a clear sign it’s laying the groundwork for a public debut. Its valuation is already sizable, sitting around $380 billion.
- SpaceX: A SpaceX IPO would likely be the largest venture-backed listing ever, with some estimates pointing to a valuation as high as $1.5 trillion. That capital could help accelerate SpaceX’s long-term goals of expanding access to space and continuing to build out its Starlink low-Earth orbit internet network, which reportedly generated the bulk of the company’s roughly $15 billion in revenue last year.
- Databricks: The San Francisco software company offers a cloud-based platform for data analytics and AI. In the second half of 2025, they announced that their year-over-year growth rate was 55%, with a revenue run rate of over $4.8 billion. The company’s valuation sits at about $134 billion.
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Join the discussion by leaving a comment! |
How are you investing during this crisis? |
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Monday Japan Unemployment Rate (Feb) Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.7%
Why it matters: With a shrinking population and aging demographics, Japan faces a shortage of labor. A low unemployment rate confirms that industries are struggling to fill vacancies. |
Wednesday U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Previous: 52.4%
Why it matters: The March reading will signal whether the factory sector is expanding or contracting. |
Friday U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast: 50k, Previous: -92k
Why it matters: This is the single most market-moving US data release of the month, covering payroll gains, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. |
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