Market Insights: How to invest when commodity prices get messy ⚖️

⚖️ How to invest when commodity prices get messy

Commodity prices are off to a flying start in 2026. The price of gold has now topped US$4,900, nearly double its price a year ago, while silver broke a 13-year high and has even hit US$100. Some are benefitting from heightened uncertainty, while others are jumping on the AI bandwagon. 

The changing world order appears to have as many implications for the prices of natural resources as it does for equities, bonds, and currencies. This week we are taking a look at the outlook for precious metals, industrial metals, and energy markets.

This week's Market Insights is a 5 minute read! Full article here

Quote of the week

"Commodities tend to zig when the equity markets zag."

Jim Rogers

What Happened In The Markets This Week?

Here’s a quick summary of what’s been going on:

🏛️ Trump sues JPMorgan for $5B over 'debanking' (BBC)

• What happened: Trump filed a $5B lawsuit accusing JPMorgan of politically motivated account closures following the Capitol riot. The suit names Jamie Dimon and cites reputational damage. The complaint claims JPM blacklisted Trump-linked entities across private banking, retail, and political action accounts.

• How it impacts investors: The case could fuel regulatory and political scrutiny of how banks manage reputational risk and customer deplatforming. It adds legal overhang and PR risk for JPM.

• Next steps: Track real-time news sentiment on JPM and watch for shifts in financials sector momentum if this story escalates.

📺 Netflix’s ad business shows promise, but still early innings (CNBC)

• What happened: Netflix’s ad-supported tier now has 23 million monthly users, with ad-tier ARPU exceeding that of its cheapest ad-free plan.The company has expanded its ad partnerships and added new targeting features, but it still hasn’t disclosed total ad revenue or margin contribution.

• How it impacts investors: Ad-supported streaming could become a margin boost over time, but the lack of transparency makes it tough to size the opportunity. It's progress, but not a pivot yet.

• Next steps: Use our peer comparison tool (section 1.3) to see how Netflix stacks up against Disney, Roku, and YouTube on monetization metrics.

To see our take on these market stories below, simply check out the full article!

• 🎮 Ubisoft tanks 33% after canceling six games and closing studios 

• 📉 Intel slides despite beating earnings as AI euphoria fades

• 🚙 Stellantis sheds as investors tire of the turnaround story

Now let’s dive into the main piece.

🌍 Commodity Outlook 2026: The ‘Dislocation’ continues 

Our 2026 Market Outlook newsletter mentioned all the polarization occurring in markets and economies. The commodity market is no different. While the current environment is acting as a tailwind for some commodities, it’s a headwind for others.

So why is the US trying to gain control of Venezuela's oil?

📉 Some of the relationships between assets that used to be fairly reliable are becoming dislocated too. As an example, the usually negative correlation between the real yields (yields minus inflation) and the gold price, hasn’t held since 2022.

Gold Price vs. Real Yields - CME Group

Certain commodities are being regarded by governments and investors as strategic assets rather than raw materials. 

Elsewhere, the relationship between global GDP growth and basic commodities like iron ore and oil, is being impacted by new secular trends (AI and electrification) and increases in supply.

Big shifts in commodity prices don’t always come from obvious places.

In 2026, gold is surging, oil is stalling, and some of the most reliable market signals are no longer behaving as expected.

Our full article covers:

🧭 Why old commodity correlations no longer hold.

For example, gold is climbing despite higher real yields.

⚖️ How structural demand is reshaping winners and losers

with some commodities outperforming over others.

🛢️ Why oil as a commodity is starting to look like “dead money”
and where in the industry investors could look at.

📊 How investors can think about positioning when volatility rises including whether it makes more sense to invest in the commodity itself.

💬 Join the discussion by leaving a comment!

What signal do you trust most when commodity markets get noisy?

Key Events During the Next Week

Monday

• 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders MoM

  • ▶️ Previous: -2.2%

  • ➡️ Why it matters: This leading indicator for manufacturing demand tracks business investment; a rebound is needed to show the broader economy remains strong.

Wednesday

• 🇨🇦 CA BoC Interest Rate Decision

  • ▶️ Previous: 2.25%

  • ➡️ Why it matters: The central bank's decision will directly impact borrowing costs and the Canadian dollar's valuation against peers.

• 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision

  • 📈 Forecast: 3.75%, Previous: 3.75%

  • ➡️ Why it matters: No change is expected but the Fed’s statement might shed light on the next move.

Thursday

• 🇯🇵 JP Consumer Confidence (Jan)

  • 📈 Forecast: 37.6, Previous: 37.2

  • ➡️ Why it matters: Improving sentiment supports the consumption recovery necessary for the Bank of Japan to justify further rate hikes.

Friday

• 🇪🇺 GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q4)
  
  • ▶️ Previous: 1.4%
  • ➡️ Why it matters: This year-over-year metric confirms whether the Eurozone recovery is gaining structural traction.
    

It’s the biggest week of earnings season with four Mag 7 companies reporting, along with large caps in several sectors:

• Microsoft (MSFT)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Meta (META)

• Visa (V)

• Tesla (TSLA)

Until next week, invest well.

Simply Wall St

4 Simple Steps to Calculate the Value of Any Stock 📺 

In this short video, Simply Wall St founder Al Bentley walks through how he actually thinks about a stock’s intrinsic value. It’s a simple four-step approach that skips the messy spreadsheets and focuses on understanding the business instead. If you’ve ever felt that valuation sounds harder than it needs to be, this is a great place to start.

Watch the video now on YouTube: