The gravity of the SpaceX IPO |
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This week’s insights include: |
- SpaceX isn't as much of a space company anymore: Its S-1 maps a $28.5 trillion addressable market, but less than $2 trillion of that is space and connectivity. Starlink pays the bills today, while the biggest spending (and the biggest losses) now flow into AI chips, data centres, and Grok.
- The mechanics behind the price: At a $1.75 trillion target, SpaceX would list at roughly 95 times sales on an unprofitable past 12 months. That multiple may only hold if bets like reusable Starship, in-house chips, and orbital data centres all stick the landing.
- The IPO is big enough to have ripple effects: $75 billion has to be absorbed in one go, and fast-tracked index inclusion could ultimately force as much as $400 billion of buying from S&P funds alone. So even if you never choose SpaceX, a passive fund may buy it for you.
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This week's Market Insights article is a 10 minute read! |
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Few companies in recent memory have divided opinion the way SpaceX and its upcoming IPO now do. When a single S-1 filing can mention colonizing Mars and mining asteroids, and carry an expected valuation of $1.75 trillion on debut, it's hard not to be at least a little curious about what's really going on underneath. So this week I asked our long-time writer, Richard Bowman, to look past Elon's tweets (and the hyperbole that often circulates this close to an IPO) and get a clear picture of what investors could really be getting when this futuristic company makes its landing on June 12. What he found genuinely surprised me, and whichever side you lean toward, I suspect there's something valuable you can take from this exploration. Sincerely, Mitchell Lawler, Senior Investment Editor |
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| | “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years” |
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Here’s a quick summary of what’s been going on: |
- India loses edge as investors flock to Asia's AI hubs.
- Alphabet's $80 billion share sale puts capital market in "unprecedented territory".
- SoftBank's €75 billion french bet exposes Europe's AI power problem
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Join the discussion by leaving a comment! |
Is the SpaceX IPO worth its $1.75 trillion valuation, or is the hype getting ahead of the business? |
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Tuesday 🇨🇳 China Trade Balance Forecast: $89 billion, Previous: $84.8 billion Why it matters: Weak imports would signal softening domestic demand, which may weigh commodity prices. |
Wednesday 🇺🇸 US Inflation Rate Forecast: 3.9%, Previous: 3.8%
Why it matters: A print any higher than expected makes rate cuts this year unlikely. 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision Forecast: 2.25%, Previous: 2.25%
Why it matters: Expected hold; a surprise hike on oil-driven inflation would catch markets off-guard. |
Thursday 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision Forecast: 2.25%, Previous: 2.00%
Why it matters: Hike is fully priced in, but the market will be following commentary closely. |
Friday 🇬🇧 UK GDP MoM Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.3%
Why it matters: Expected cooling after the fuel-price shock. |
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