Plus: 🛰️ SaaS Resurgence, a community watchlist of 30 niche companies.
Narratives you
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- Why Adobe isn't just another AI disruption casualty, but a business that holds its value even in the scenarios where AI competition wins.
- Why Broadcom isn't just an AI stock, but the infrastructure layer that every cloud, every model, and every platform depends on.
- Why Okta isn't just a profitable security company, but the platform best placed to govern AI agents multiplying inside every organisation.
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Adobe: A Probabilistic Case for Undervaluation |
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Why this Narrative made this week’s picks |
Author looked at a stock the market has punished heavily on AI fears and asked a different question: what if we actually test that fear rather than guess at it? Using a Monte Carlo simulation across thousands of scenarios, including ones where AI competition wins, the author finds Adobe undervalued in most of them. |
Author’s valuation assumes ~26% p.a. revenue growth for 5 years. |
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A Capital Allocation Favorite with Structural Importance |
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Why this Narrative made this week’s picks |
Author argues the market has Broadcom wrong. Everyone calls it an AI stock. The author calls it digital infrastructure: a business that moves data regardless of which AI model, cloud provider, or software platform eventually wins. The author is not betting on who wins the AI race. Just that whoever does will still need Broadcom. |
Author’s valuation assumes ~22% p.a. revenue growth for 5 years. |
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Todd McKinnon delivered, but still needs to find a better payment-solution |
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Why this Narrative made this week’s picks |
Author first wrote about Okta when the company still had not made money. A year and a half later, it has. Now the narrative has moved: as AI agents multiply inside every organisation, each one will need its own identity, its own permissions, its own oversight. The author sees this as an opportunity still largely up for grabs. |
Author’s valuation assumes ~10.5% p.a. revenue growth for 5 years. |
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 | Community watchlist pick: SaaS Resurgence - 30 Global Turnaround Plays for 2026! Thirty undercovered SaaS names across the US, Europe, APAC, and Canada, each picked for a catalyst worth investigating further. | | | See the list | |
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Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. These narratives are general in nature and reflect the authors’ own opinions only. They do not represent the views of Simply Wall St and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. Any scenarios or fair value estimates discussed are exploratory only, are not indicative of the company’s future performance, and do not take into account your objectives or financial situation. The authors’ analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this email/website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us. |
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