Plus: ✈️ Booking’s platform advantage in a slower travel market
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Hey Investor, Welcome to Weekly Picks, where each week our analysts handpick their favorite Narratives.
Narratives are a game-changing way for investors to make smarter decisions on their stocks. A narrative always has 3 parts: a story, a forecast and a fair value. You can create one yourself in 3 minutes or you can select one from our thriving community.
This week’s picks cover: 🔥 How Shell’s overlooked LNG engine may be doing more heavy lifting than its share price suggests. ✈️ How Booking Holdings quietly wins as travel slows and planning becomes more price-conscious and complex. 🧠 Why ASML may be far more resilient than the market assumes, even as chip cycles and geopolitics dominate headlines. |
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A fully integrated LNG business seems to be ignored by the market |
Shell’s strength lies in its global gas and LNG business, which allows it to benefit from shifting energy markets. Its trading capabilities help it profit from volatility rather than suffer from it. Strong cash flow supports dividends and buybacks while demand for reliable energy remains high. This gives investors income and stability even as the energy transition continues. |
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~26% undervalued vs current price |
Based on ~4.8% p.a. revenue growth for 5 years |
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💡 Why we like it: This narrative reframes Shell in a way most investors don’t usually think about, connecting energy markets to AI and global infrastructure. It’s valuable because it helps readers see hidden drivers that don’t show up in short-term price moves. |
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Booking Holdings: Why Ground-Level Travel Trends Still Favor the Platform Giants |
Booking Holdings benefits from how people plan travel today, not just how much they travel. Its size and wide range of options make it easier for travelers to compare prices and plan flexible trips. As travel becomes more price-conscious, being the default platform matters more than chasing rapid growth. This steady role helps smooth out cycles rather than relying on boom-and-bust travel demand. |
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~6.5% undervalued vs current price |
Based on ~7.77% p.a. revenue growth for 5 years |
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💡 Why we like it: This piece focuses on real-world behavior instead of abstract forecasts, making the argument feel intuitive and believable. It’s useful for investors because it explains how small changes in travel habits can quietly favor big platforms over time. |
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EU#3 - From Philips Management Buyout to Europe’s Biggest Company |
ASML plays a crucial role in the chip industry by making the machines needed to produce the most advanced semiconductors. Its technology is extremely hard to replace, which gives the company long-term importance despite short-term ups and downs. As demand for AI and advanced computing grows, ASML’s position looks increasingly secure. |
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~10% undervalued vs current price |
Based on 15% p.a. revenue growth for 5 years |
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💡 Why we like it: The narrative tells ASML’s story step by step, making a very complex business easy to follow. It helps investors understand why this company matters, not just how it makes money, which is crucial for long-term conviction. |
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What's next?
1. 🔔 Know when to act: Set the narrative valuations as your own fair value to know when to buy, hold or sell the stock.
2. 🤔 Get answers: Ask the author any questions in the comments section. Feel free to like as well to support their work.
3. ✨ Discover more Narratives: There are hundreds of other insightful stock narratives on our Community page.
4. ✍️ Build an audience: Have your narrative seen by millions of investors, simply meet our Featuring criteria to go into the running! |
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| This email is from Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd
Level 5, 320 Pitt St Sydney 2000, NSW, Australia. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. These narratives are general in nature and explore scenarios and estimates created by the authors. These narratives do not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company’s future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. They do not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Note that the author’s analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
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