Plus: 🤺 The tools that built the design world are now fighting to stay relevant.
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Hey Investor, Welcome to Weekly Picks, where each week our analysts handpick their favorite Narratives. Narratives are a game-changing way for investors to make smarter decisions on their stocks. A narrative always has 3 parts: a story, a forecast and a fair value. You can create one yourself in 3 minutes or you can select one from our thriving community. This week’s picks cover: 🧠 How Adobe’s pivot could defend its creative fortress amid rising competition. 📈 Why AppLovin’s Shopify integration may unlock a global wave of new advertisers. 🚚 How Kodiak AI’s “Driver-as-a-Service” model could reshape the trillion-dollar freight market. |
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A Fair Price for a Great Business Facing Real Threats |
Adobe’s growth now hinges on enterprise adoption of its generative AI, Firefly, whose commercial-safe status could help defend pricing power and sustain revenue growth. However, rising AI competition and market share losses to players like Figma signal margin pressure and a lasting valuation reset as Adobe transitions from dominance to defense. |
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~11% undervalued vs current price |
Based on ~8% p.a. revenue growth for 5 years | | |
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💡 Why we like it: The author balances respect for Adobe’s quality with realism about new AI threats, framing it as a fortress facing real competition. It’s got plenty of references and research to back up claims, and provides a balanced point of view with bull, base and bear case scenarios. |
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AXON And Shopify Integration Will Unlock Global Mobile Advertising |
Expanded AXON and Shopify integration is expected to unlock significant new advertiser demand globally, driving faster revenue growth and deeper international market penetration. Ongoing AI-driven ad targeting improvements and category diversification beyond gaming should enhance efficiency and profitability, though heightened regulatory and platform risks could constrain monetization and margin expansion. |
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~4% undervalued vs current price |
Based on ~22% revenue growth p.a. for 5 years |
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💡 Why we like it: It’s a structured and data-driven take on AppLovin’s global expansion story. It offers a grounded view of growth potential backed by clear assumptions and analyst forecasts, while recognising the platform risk and regulatory pressure. |
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Kodiak AI - a potential 100 bagger opportunity? |
Kodiak's Driver-as-a-Service model targets high margin revenue in the massive freight market, leveraging proven deployments and large financial backing to validate its commercial potential. Its mapless autonomous system, defense-grade AI training, and OEM-agnostic hardware create a durable technology moat, while strong capital discipline and a 33-month cash runway provide a limited but critical window to achieve scalable profitability. |
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~34% undervalued vs current price |
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💡 Why we like it: The author lays out a bold but disciplined case for Kodiak AI as a high-risk, high-reward play on autonomous trucking. It’s packed with detail and frames the company as a lean, well-run disruptor with genuine technology and timing advantages in a trillion-dollar market. |
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What's next?
1. 🔔 Know when to act: Set the narrative valuations as your own fair value to know when to buy, hold or sell the stock.
2. 🤔 Get answers: Ask the author any questions in the comments section. Feel free to like as well to support their work.
3. ✨ Discover more Narratives: There are hundreds of other insightful stock narratives on our Community page.
4. ✍️ Build an audience: Have your narrative seen by millions of investors, simply meet our Featuring criteria to go into the running! |
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| This email is from Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd
Level 5, 320 Pitt St Sydney 2000, NSW, Australia. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. These narratives are general in nature and explore scenarios and estimates created by the authors. These narratives do not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company’s future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. They do not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Note that the author’s analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this email/website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us. Privacy Policy Terms and Conditions
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