Today has been circled on the calendars of politicos and traders alike for weeks, as the Supreme Court is hearing arguments in the long-running Trump tariff case.
The arguments are the final stop for the president's key economic policy, which was overturned by two lower courts but has stayed in force as the litigation proceeded. A sympathetic conservative majority might be generous to Trump based on its previous rulings expanding executive power, but there is also a possibility that the court will uphold the lower courts' decisions.
At least right now, traders are turning away from bets that Scotus will side with Trump. On prediction markets -- yes, plural -- bets that the court will uphold the tariffs have plummeted.
Stocks at midday Wednesday are strong, maybe reflecting some of this optimism; the Nasdaq (+1.04%) and S&P 500 (+0.78%) are recouping some of their losses from yesterday.
Wednesday Reading:.
If those bets prove correct, the end of tariffs could be near-term bullish for equities, but they could also create all sorts of new headaches and questions for U.S. trade policy.
Namely: How does the tariff money get returned to businesses? What happens to the investment commitments countries have made? And then there's the bigger question about what Trump might do next. Never shy to implement controversial policies, the president might set his scholars and staff on an effort to probe trade law.
History has told us: "Remember, remember, the Fifth of November" for its various sources of historical significance. Thankfully, with a truly groundbreaking economic case like this, it won't be difficult..
TurboTax Via TheStreet:
-- Noah Weidner, Markets Reporter
