Happy Monday. Friday's jobs news has been good news for investors. After the U.S. economy added just 22K jobs in the month of August, stocks jumped on Friday, as traders and investors pushed Fed interest-rate cuts into certain territory. Today, stocks are continuing to climb: the Nasdaq (+0.69%) is at an intraday all-time high, the S&P 500 (+0.32%) is on track for a record close, and the Dow (+0.17%) and Russell 2000 (+0.07%) are moderately green.
However, analysts at JP Morgan warn that it's best not to get complacent about the wins, especially in light of the job losses and tepid economic data. A new note from the investment bank warns that the Fed's long-anticipated cut could open the door to sharp volatility. Specifically, the analysts warn that the bias among investors could be to "sell the news" after the Fed's expected 0.25-percentage-point cut.
Monday Reading
That could send U.S. equities tumbling, perhaps not the worst outcome but a thing to store front of mind to inoculate yourself against short-term FUD: fear, uncertainty and doubt. A decline in some equities has been tipped by other trading desks on Wall Street. It would also befit the times, as September also tends to be one of the worst months for U.S. equity returns. JPM still holds a year-end S&P 500 price target of 6,000.
Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about the year-end 2025 S&P, TheStreet's Todd Campbell reports. The jobs data were weak enough to force the Fed's hand on a rate cut, the investment bank wrote. And it sees the S&P at 6600 at year-end 2025 and 6900 by mid-2026. The tailwind? Corporate earnings.growth, Goldman Sachs suggests.
Still, investors have some more data to parse before making any big decisions. This week, we'll get a clue on how prices are being affected by the Trump tariffs. We'll also see heavily watched jobs-data revisions, which could offer insights on the labor market. Investors obviously want this data to be bad enough to elicit a Fed-cut reaction. But as analysts continue to warn, not too bad.
TurboTax Via TheStreet
-- Noah Weidner, markets reporter
