Happy Monday. We hope you are faring well during the holidays. This afternoon, U.S. equities are down, as well as precious metals like silver and gold ('tis the season!)
There are just a few short trading days left until year-end, but regardless of how you slice it, U.S. equities have managed an impressive feat: a third consecutive year of 10%+ returns across major indexes. The Nasdaq Composite has risen more than 21%, while the S&P 500 (+17.6%), Dow (+14.4%), and Russell 2000 (+12.9%) have put up impressive year-to-date performances of their own, too.
Generally, these sorts of strong streaks tend to end in moderating returns in year four. Indeed, the most modest of forecasts for the S&P 500 see single-digit gains next year, but nearly half of the major analysts polled by TheStreet's Charley Blaine see another year of double-digit gains. The average outlook among the 21 polled was 10.15%, which would put the index around 7,577 by year-end 2026.
Monday Reading:
Notably, nobody in our poll said that they saw the index going lower next year. That's despite worries of concentration in tech companies, recurrent episodes of AI-flavored pullback and comebacks, and worries about valuations. There's also the comparisons: the last time the S&P put up four consecutive years of double-digit gains was 2003 to 2007... and everybody knows what happened next.
We still have to finish off 2025 before we can put 2026 on the clock. This week will see a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve (Dec. 31), with a market closure on New Year's Day (Jan. 1). Between now and then, we'll get a hodgepodge of data, including the FOMC Minutes on Tuesday and Jobless Claims on Wednesday.
-- Noah Weidner, markets reporter
